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C3
No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #324 · holds 4 consensus positions
0xc301c1e0...a00466aaPolymarket
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #324
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 4 on the consensus side (0%)- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.3K · now 28¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $271 · now 82¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Yes $32 · now 9¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes $11 · now 5¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
14 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 64¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Contestable-Parfait's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 0% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 57%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.