Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by November 30, 2026?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 97¢ · $43K held · ends Dec 1

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$43.4K

Combined PnL

$440.59

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 97.4¢

+1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$43.4K

Total Shares44,640

Combined PnL+$440.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.56

Total Shares784

Combined PnL-$0.18

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pantomime	Noavg 97.8¢	$11.8K	$11.8K	-$46.95	— 3-6 (9)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 95.8¢	$14.1K	$8.6K	+$250.86	72% 1118-425 (1543)
Lolakis	Noavg 96.4¢	$8.3K	$8.3K	+$48.27	18% 7-32 (39)
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642	Noavg 96.8¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$12.6	— 8-7 (15)
LE leegunner	Noavg 94.8¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$48.87	— 7-6 (13)
Sardinianshepherd	Noavg 95.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$28	4% 3-65 (68)
PI pilimili	Noavg 95.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$30.22	2% 1-50 (51)
PA Paul973973	Noavg 98¢	$1.0K	$994.12	-$5.88	51% 74-71 (145)
D8 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935	Noavg 95.6¢	$875.21	$891.79	+$16.58	— 11-1 (12)
xxNyx	Noavg 95.6¢	$3.8K	$734.15	+$41.62	— 3-2 (5)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 93.7¢	$468.58	$485	+$16.42	— 2-2 (4)
Dr.mett	Noavg 99¢	$103.9	$101.85	-$2.05	— 11-2 (13)
Talophex	Noavg 96.7¢	$286.81	$97.4	+$2.31	12% 3-23 (26)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$21.63	$20.69	-$0.94	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$20	$19.89	-$0.11	32% 222-462 (684)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$5.41	$5.68	+$0.26	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$2.75	$2.2	+$0.5	41% 27-39 (66)

pantomime

Invested

$11,837.92

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$46.95

Record

—

3-6 (9)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$14,106.23

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$250.86

Record

72%

1118-425 (1543)

Lolakis

Invested

$8,321.3

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$48.27

Record

18%

7-32 (39)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642

Invested

$5,433.94

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$12.6

Record

—

8-7 (15)

leegunner

Invested

$2,075.95

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$48.87

Record

—

7-6 (13)

Sardinianshepherd

Invested

$1,911.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$28

Record

3-65 (68)

pilimili

Invested

$1,802.08

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$30.22

Record

1-50 (51)

Paul973973

Invested

$1,000

Value

$994.12

PnL

-$5.88

Record

51%

74-71 (145)

D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935

Invested

$875.21

Value

$891.79

PnL

+$16.58

Record

—

11-1 (12)

xxNyx

Invested

$3,824

Value

$734.15

PnL

+$41.62

Record

—

3-2 (5)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$468.58

Value

$485

PnL

+$16.42

Record

—

2-2 (4)

Dr.mett

Invested

$103.9

Value

$101.85

PnL

-$2.05

Record

—

11-2 (13)

Talophex

Invested

$286.81

Value

$97.4

PnL

+$2.31

Record

12%

3-23 (26)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.63

Value

$20.69

PnL

-$0.94

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.89

PnL

-$0.11

Record

32%

222-462 (684)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.41

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.26

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.5

Record

41%

27-39 (66)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.