Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 9, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 4.3¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 10

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$85.43

Combined PnL

-$24.89

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$57.5

Total Shares1,337

Combined PnL-$25.92

No2 traders

Total Value$27.93

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$1.03

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$83.28	$48.7	-$34.59	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$22.1	$22.97	+$0.86	56% 18852-15018 (33870)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$107.94	$8.8	+$8.66	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$4.8	$4.97	+$0.17	53% 8890-8041 (16931)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.28

Value

$48.7

PnL

-$34.59

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$22.1

Value

$22.97

PnL

+$0.86

Record

56%

18852-15018 (33870)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.94

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$8.66

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.5%

4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1717.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

1817.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.