Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 10, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$132.09
-$42.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $61.14 | $94.12 | -$48.93 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $32.76 | $36.2 | +$5.8 | 53% 8890-8041 (16931) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $1.55 | $1.77 | +$0.22 | 27% 659-1763 (2422) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.