Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 7, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $66 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$65.76
-$8.94
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $40.61 | $41.37 | +$0.02 | 56% 18835-15002 (33837) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $27.76 | $17.36 | -$7.2 | 52% 31079-29042 (60121) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $6.71 | $6.78 | +$0.07 | 77% 12726-3889 (16615) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $2.08 | $0.26 | -$1.82 | 40% 6592-9939 (16531) |
Invested
$40.61
Value
$41.37
PnL
+$0.02
Record
56%
18835-15002 (33837)
balthazar<$100Invested
$27.76
Value
$17.36
PnL
-$7.2
Record
52%
31079-29042 (60121)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$6.78
PnL
+$0.07
Record
77%
12726-3889 (16615)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$1.82
Record
40%
6592-9939 (16531)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.