Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 12, 2026?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 69¢ · $701 held · ends Nov 13

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$701.44

Combined PnL

$30.07

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 69.1¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$212.01

Total Shares686

Combined PnL+$51.78

No3 traders

Total Value$194.06

Total Shares281

Combined PnL-$21.71

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarARB<$100	Noavg 45.7¢	$361.51	$295.37	+$241.77	30% 35274-83611 (118885)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 1.6¢	$11.06	$209.84	+$179.43
└ No leg	Noavg 45.7¢	$56.53	$85.54	+$62.35
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 25.1¢	$116.59	$174.98	+$58.39	49% 22829-23658 (46487)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 66.2¢	$105.22	$109.79	+$4.57	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
Haradwaith	Noavg 90.8¢	$109.02	$82.92	-$26.1	57% 41422-31202 (72624)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 45.8¢	$36.56	$24.69	-$11.88	4% 1-22 (23)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$0.85	$7.74	+$6.89	62% 35853-22264 (58117)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.3¢	$6.23	$4.6	-$1.62	22% 1863-6612 (8475)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 78¢	$1.53	$1.35	-$0.18	25% 681-2034 (2715)

balthazarARB<$100

Invested

$361.51

Value

$295.37

PnL

+$241.77

Record

30%

35274-83611 (118885)

Both legs:

Yes$11.061.6¢+$179.43

No$56.5345.7¢+$62.35

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$116.59

Value

$174.98

PnL

+$58.39

Record

49%

22829-23658 (46487)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$105.22

Value

$109.79

PnL

+$4.57

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

Haradwaith

Invested

$109.02

Value

$82.92

PnL

-$26.1

Record

57%

41422-31202 (72624)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.56

Value

$24.69

PnL

-$11.88

Record

1-22 (23)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$6.89

Record

62%

35853-22264 (58117)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.23

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$1.62

Record

22%

1863-6612 (8475)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.18

Record

25%

681-2034 (2715)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.9%

69.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.