Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 20

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$24.54

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 78.9¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$822.43

Total Shares1,050

Combined PnL-$68.24

Yes5 traders

Total Value$286.47

Total Shares1,266

Combined PnL+$92.78

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

178h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 84¢	$668.2	$604.65	-$63.55	67% 44-22 (66)
VI VitaaalyaCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$114.43	$160.01	+$49.21	— 0-8 (8)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 88.3¢	$110.34	$99.31	-$11.03	10% 15-135 (150)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$84.18	$87.32	+$3.14	— 1-0 (1)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$64.02	$64.02	+$0	84% 21-4 (25)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 5.8¢	$325.42	$53.8	+$39.62	— 2-15 (17)
balthazar	Noavg 90¢	$543.92	$24.7	+$3.27	56% 47-37 (84)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$0.69	$4.5	+$3.81	— 4-3 (7)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$4.14	+$0.14	38% 88-145 (233)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$3.93	$3.9	-$0.18	42% 16-22 (38)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$2.46	$2.55	+$0.09	— 1-1 (2)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$668.2

Value

$604.65

PnL

-$63.55

Record

67%

44-22 (66)

VitaaalyaCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.43

Value

$160.01

PnL

+$49.21

Record

—

0-8 (8)

graynotebook19

Invested

$110.34

Value

$99.31

PnL

-$11.03

Record

10%

15-135 (150)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$84.18

Value

$87.32

PnL

+$3.14

Record

—

1-0 (1)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.02

Value

$64.02

PnL

+$0

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$325.42

Value

$53.8

PnL

+$39.62

Record

—

2-15 (17)

balthazar

Invested

$543.92

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$3.27

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$3.81

Record

—

4-3 (7)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.93

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.18

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.09

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

178h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.5%

78.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.