Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 21

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$109

Combined PnL

$18.87

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$72.9

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$4.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$35.73

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$14.42

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 83¢	$30.3	$30	-$0.02	35% 273-515 (788)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$37.76	$23.87	-$13.9	76% 510-161 (671)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 64¢	$16.17	$22.29	+$6.12	61% 20465-12833 (33298)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$22.25	$20.61	-$1.64	42% 5168-7099 (12267)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$15.1	$11.87	+$28.31	36% 14490-25940 (40430)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$30.3

Value

$30

PnL

-$0.02

Record

35%

273-515 (788)

KimchiCapitalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.76

Value

$23.87

PnL

-$13.9

Record

76%

510-161 (671)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$16.17

Value

$22.29

PnL

+$6.12

Record

61%

20465-12833 (33298)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$22.25

Value

$20.61

PnL

-$1.64

Record

42%

5168-7099 (12267)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.1

Value

$11.87

PnL

+$28.31

Record

36%

14490-25940 (40430)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.0%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.