Will Anthropic IPO on November 16, 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$844.76

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 97.4¢

+106% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,918

Combined PnL+$841.22

Yes3 traders

Total Value$12.22

Total Shares315

Combined PnL+$3.54

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

173h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nadmi	Noavg 4¢	$35.59	$868.75	+$833.16	—
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 74.1¢	$92.72	$470.69	+$5.56	54% 19-16 (35)
thefakenick	Noavg 94.8¢	$400	$390.4	+$11.38	— 0-1 (1)
GO god83743894	Noavg 94.8¢	$127.73	$118.85	-$8.88	2% 3-146 (149)
balthazarARB<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$95.81	$81.21	-$14.59	56% 47-37 (84)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.6¢	$57.44	$46.42	-$11.02
└ No leg	Noavg 97.3¢	$38.37	$34.8	-$3.57
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$5.5	$5.5	-$0.55	84% 21-4 (25)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.38	$5.45	+$4.06	67% 44-22 (66)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$1.25	$1.27	+$0.03	42% 16-22 (38)

Nadmi

Invested

$35.59

Value

$868.75

PnL

+$833.16

Record

—

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$92.72

Value

$470.69

PnL

+$5.56

Record

54%

19-16 (35)

thefakenick

Invested

$400

Value

$390.4

PnL

+$11.38

Record

—

0-1 (1)

god83743894

Invested

$127.73

Value

$118.85

PnL

-$8.88

Record

3-146 (149)

balthazarARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.81

Value

$81.21

PnL

-$14.59

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

Both legs:

Yes$57.4414.6¢-$11.02

No$38.3797.3¢-$3.57

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.55

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$4.06

Record

67%

44-22 (66)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

173h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.