Will Anthropic IPO on November 17, 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $691 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$690.72
-$53.53
94.5¢ → 94¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
171h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $115.82 | $484.16 | -$26.16 | 54% 19-16 (35) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 96.8¢ | $120.99 | $119 | -$1.99 | 16% 20-106 (126) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $18.46 | $70.08 | -$30.12 | 56% 47-37 (84) |
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $262 | $13.1 | +$5.76 | 84% 21-4 (25) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $3.95 | $3.35 | -$0.6 | 67% 44-22 (66) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $1.38 | $0.96 | -$0.42 | 38% 88-145 (233) |
Invested
$115.82
Value
$484.16
PnL
-$26.16
Record
54%
19-16 (35)
Invested
$120.99
Value
$119
PnL
-$1.99
Record
16%
20-106 (126)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.46
Value
$70.08
PnL
-$30.12
Record
56%
47-37 (84)
Invested
$262
Value
$13.1
PnL
+$5.76
Record
84%
21-4 (25)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.35
PnL
-$0.6
Record
67%
44-22 (66)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.42
Record
38%
88-145 (233)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.