Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 9 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Finland vs. San Marino: 1st Half O/U 2.5

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 21¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 21¢

-66% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,481

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares7,409

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Overavg 52¢	$641.67	$1.2K	+$591.08	36% 49-89 (138)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 39.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$26.78	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$358.84	$690.32	+$331.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.7¢	$646.61	$341.92	-$304.69
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 31¢	$274.23	$738.3	+$464.07	47% 1204-1382 (2586)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 61.8¢	$1.6K	$735.82	-$868.78	54% 6040-5116 (11156)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.8¢	$1.4K	$476.17	-$925.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 78¢	$202.73	$259.65	+$56.92
LO lonmi2511CTR	Underavg 64.7¢	$1.9K	$605.9	$-1.3K	59% 751-515 (1266)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 64.7¢	$970	$315	-$655	43% 561-752 (1313)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 64.6¢	$762.65	$248.01	-$514.64	59% 3959-2731 (6690)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$517.31	$226.32	-$290.99	38% 1372-2254 (3626)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 31¢	$59.31	$191.14	+$131.83	36% 648-1177 (1825)
SU suntori	Overavg 36¢	$49.52	$137.42	+$87.9	46% 3313-3856 (7169)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$77.6	$77.6	-$0	38% 3837-6288 (10125)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 65¢	$602.65	$73.86	-$195.68	48% 3992-4380 (8372)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 76.4¢	$43.4	$56.74	+$13.34	52% 249-233 (482)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 59.5¢	$134.82	$47.55	-$87.27	39% 1592-2508 (4100)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100	Overavg 99¢	$38.75	$39.1	+$0.35	81% 102-24 (126)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 65.1¢	$71.25	$22.99	-$48.26	56% 668-523 (1191)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$17.65	$17.81	+$0.16	99% 667-9 (676)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 32¢	$4.3	$13.42	+$9.12	41% 1195-1699 (2894)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$18.98	$8.66	-$10.32	38% 1374-2204 (3578)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 36.9¢	$19.11	$7.6	-$6.64	48% 2573-2776 (5349)

JabJabich

Over

Invested

$641.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$591.08

Record

36%

49-89 (138)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,005.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$26.78

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

Both legs:

Over$358.8451.9¢+$331.47

Under$646.6139.7¢-$304.69

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$274.23

Value

$738.3

PnL

+$464.07

Record

47%

1204-1382 (2586)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,604.6

Value

$735.82

PnL

-$868.78

Record

54%

6040-5116 (11156)

Both legs:

Under$1,401.8761.8¢-$925.7

Over$202.7378¢+$56.92

lonmi2511CTR

Under

Invested

$1,865.5

Value

$605.9

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

751-515 (1266)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$970

Value

$315

PnL

-$655

Record

43%

561-752 (1313)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$762.65

Value

$248.01

PnL

-$514.64

Record

59%

3959-2731 (6690)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$517.31

Value

$226.32

PnL

-$290.99

Record

38%

1372-2254 (3626)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$59.31

Value

$191.14

PnL

+$131.83

Record

36%

648-1177 (1825)

suntori

Over

Invested

$49.52

Value

$137.42

PnL

+$87.9

Record

46%

3313-3856 (7169)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$77.6

Value

$77.6

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

3837-6288 (10125)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$602.65

Value

$73.86

PnL

-$195.68

Record

48%

3992-4380 (8372)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$43.4

Value

$56.74

PnL

+$13.34

Record

52%

249-233 (482)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$134.82

Value

$47.55

PnL

-$87.27

Record

39%

1592-2508 (4100)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100

Over

Invested

$38.75

Value

$39.1

PnL

+$0.35

Record

81%

102-24 (126)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$71.25

Value

$22.99

PnL

-$48.26

Record

56%

668-523 (1191)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$17.65

Value

$17.81

PnL

+$0.16

Record

99%

667-9 (676)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.3

Value

$13.42

PnL

+$9.12

Record

41%

1195-1699 (2894)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.98

Value

$8.66

PnL

-$10.32

Record

38%

1374-2204 (3578)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.11

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$6.64

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.