Spain vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5

14 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

-$250.66

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 32 top traders (44%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over14 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares19,987

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under18 traders

Total Value$217.13

Total Shares13,307

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

47% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (30 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrUnder 73% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 53% · 30

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Overavg 81¢	$6.5K	$4.4K	$-2.1K	65% 370-195 (565)
LonnieHawkinss	Overavg 98.9¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$38.35	57% 60-45 (105)
MI MinevaJ	Overavg 72¢	$2.6K	$3.6K	+$1.0K	31% 57-127 (184)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 83.8¢	$3.6K	$2.9K	+$301.12	82% 110-24 (134)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 72.2¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$420.65	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 82.8¢	$870	$997.74	+$167.48	34% 127-245 (372)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$4.9K	$788.59	+$894.91	29% 100-241 (341)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 80¢	$396.8	$495.75	+$98.95	83% 59-12 (71)
SH shiifoo	Overavg 48¢	$193.47	$369.13	+$195.66	60% 1475-976 (2451)
RN1	Overavg 34.5¢	$143.29	$335.84	+$192.55	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
BE Betyourself	Overavg 79.9¢	$249.6	$312.09	+$62.49	88% 43-6 (49)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 26.5¢	$51.49	$194.2	+$142.72	35% 669-1223 (1892)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 35.5¢	$418.55	$107.68	-$310.87	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
MA manoamano<$100	Overavg 84¢	$49.7	$56.16	+$8.66	54% 45-38 (83)
dips.CTR	Underavg 33.6¢	$231.17	$48.19	-$156.9	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 52¢	$33	$42	+$9	45% 1018-1224 (2242)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$44.54	$37.12	-$7.42	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$15.88	$13.24	-$2.65	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 36.6¢	$1.0K	$5.2	+$174.27	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 36.4¢	$5.5K	$1.86	+$404.94	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 28¢	$712.37	$1.27	-$711.09	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
CI cigarettesCTR	Underavg 34¢	$460.09	$0.68	-$459.42	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR	Underavg 33.6¢	$512.44	$0.48	-$400.06	— 8-5 (13)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 28.3¢	$265.52	$0.47	-$265.05	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 26.2¢	$229.57	$0.44	-$229.13	38% 1425-2300 (3725)

dashattacker

Over

Invested

$6,491.33

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

65%

370-195 (565)

LonnieHawkinss

Over

Invested

$3,730.88

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$38.35

Record

57%

60-45 (105)

MinevaJ

Over

Invested

$2,595.93

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

31%

57-127 (184)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$3,607.64

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$301.12

Record

82%

110-24 (134)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,282.38

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$420.65

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$870

Value

$997.74

PnL

+$167.48

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$4,886.01

Value

$788.59

PnL

+$894.91

Record

29%

100-241 (341)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$396.8

Value

$495.75

PnL

+$98.95

Record

83%

59-12 (71)

shiifoo

Over

Invested

$193.47

Value

$369.13

PnL

+$195.66

Record

60%

1475-976 (2451)

RN1

Over

Invested

$143.29

Value

$335.84

PnL

+$192.55

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Betyourself

Over

Invested

$249.6

Value

$312.09

PnL

+$62.49

Record

88%

43-6 (49)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$51.49

Value

$194.2

PnL

+$142.72

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$418.55

Value

$107.68

PnL

-$310.87

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

manoamano<$100

Over

Invested

$49.7

Value

$56.16

PnL

+$8.66

Record

54%

45-38 (83)

dips.CTR

Under

Invested

$231.17

Value

$48.19

PnL

-$156.9

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$33

Value

$42

PnL

+$9

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.54

Value

$37.12

PnL

-$7.42

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.88

Value

$13.24

PnL

-$2.65

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$1,017.53

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$174.27

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$5,528.26

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$404.94

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$712.37

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$711.09

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

cigarettesCTR

Under

Invested

$460.09

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$459.42

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR

Under

Invested

$512.44

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$400.06

Record

—

8-5 (13)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$265.52

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$265.05

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$229.57

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$229.13

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 32 top traders (44%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

47% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (30 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrUnder 73% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 53% · 30

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.