Consensus PnL $350K · win rate 49% (1441–1499, n=2940) · PM monthly #113 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$350.0K
Record
1441W / 1499L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 2940 settled
Batting Avg
21.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1749
Source
PM monthly #113
Trades
750
Markets
3,833
Volume
$3.4M
Specialties
1,329 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 66¢- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 76% of 1313 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +8%
- NHL
+8 pts
side won 73% of 15 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 28% of 220)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 59% of 167)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 76% of 215)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 95% of 727)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.