Belarus vs. Albania: 1st Half O/U 0.5

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (52%) · Over at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 52%

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$108.85

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,750

Combined PnL+$409.2

Under10 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares7,326

Combined PnL-$300.34

Over — 52%Under — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JhonAlexanderHinestroza	Overavg 95.4¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$213.32	54% 407-344 (751)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$222.43	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.67	98% 504-11 (515)
ER72SEN	Overavg 94.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$58.63	83% 33-7 (40)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 39¢	$113.22	$170.32	+$57.1	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 48¢	$219.97	$129.82	+$113.81	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 65.1¢	$121.41	$122.13	+$0.72	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
CI cigarettes	Overavg 53¢	$68.57	$109.8	+$41.23	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$85.39	$85.44	+$0.04	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 61¢	$71.37	$61.43	-$9.95	44% 337-422 (759)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 61¢	$34.77	$29.93	-$4.84	50% 747-737 (1484)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 85.3¢	$17.35	$12.62	-$4.74	83% 289-60 (349)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 97¢	$10	$10.3	+$0.3	43% 564-761 (1325)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 39.4¢	$9.12	$9.95	+$0.83	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 23.9¢	$27.61	$6.93	-$20.68	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$4.34	$6.51	+$2.17	45% 369-454 (823)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 36.8¢	$29.08	$4.74	-$24.34	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$99.95	$0.83	-$99.11	5% 12-237 (249)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 53.8¢	$408.92	$0.38	-$408.54	65% 353-190 (543)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$19.34	$0.24	-$19.09	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 3.5¢	$11.26	$0.16	-$11.1	46% 882-1039 (1921)

JhonAlexanderHinestroza

Over

Invested

$4,477.9

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$213.32

Record

54%

407-344 (751)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,979.41

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$222.43

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$1,328.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.67

Record

98%

504-11 (515)

ER72SEN

Over

Invested

$1,047.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$58.63

Record

83%

33-7 (40)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$113.22

Value

$170.32

PnL

+$57.1

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$219.97

Value

$129.82

PnL

+$113.81

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$121.41

Value

$122.13

PnL

+$0.72

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$68.57

Value

$109.8

PnL

+$41.23

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$85.39

Value

$85.44

PnL

+$0.04

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$71.37

Value

$61.43

PnL

-$9.95

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$34.77

Value

$29.93

PnL

-$4.84

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$17.35

Value

$12.62

PnL

-$4.74

Record

83%

289-60 (349)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

43%

564-761 (1325)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.83

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.61

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$20.68

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.34

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$2.17

Record

45%

369-454 (823)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.08

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$24.34

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

SmallcoinsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$99.95

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$99.11

Record

12-237 (249)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$408.92

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$408.54

Record

65%

353-190 (543)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.34

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$19.09

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.26

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$11.1

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.