UFC Fight Night: Johnny Walker vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Waldo Cortes Acosta (57%) · Waldo Cortes Acosta at 65¢ · $87K held · ends Nov 8

Johnny Walker36¢Waldo Cortes Acosta64¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Consensus Traders

Waldo Cortes Acosta 57%

Total Value

$86.8K

Combined PnL

-$421.66

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralWaldo Cortes Acosta at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Waldo Cortes Acosta

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Johnny Walker36%

Waldo Cortes Acosta65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Waldo Cortes Acosta8 traders

Total Value$62.7K

Total Shares96,551

Combined PnL-$267.88

Johnny Walker6 traders

Total Value$24.1K

Total Shares70,029

Combined PnL-$153.78

Waldo Cortes Acosta — 57%Johnny Walker — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Waldo Cortes Acostaavg 64.5¢	$20.9K	$20.9K	-$1.87	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Waldo Cortes Acostaavg 65.1¢	$17.3K	$17.2K	-$172.47	48% 405-446 (851)
RA RaisuuCTR	Johnny Walkeravg 35.1¢	$14.0K	$13.6K	-$448.8	60% 12-8 (20)
VeryLucky888	Waldo Cortes Acostaavg 65.8¢	$14.1K	$12.1K	+$196.98	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0x76a0728837861C561eD4bE3bc31A32C76986FB5b-1769364941649	Waldo Cortes Acostaavg 66¢	$10.7K	$10.5K	-$244.21	26% 53-153 (206)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Johnny Walkeravg 34¢	$7.4K	$7.7K	+$324.32	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	Johnny Walkeravg 34.1¢	$14.98	$1.7K	-$25.67	63% 107-63 (170)
OM omnibus-076daa	Waldo Cortes Acostaavg 66.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$41.23	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
FR frohp5CTR	Johnny Walkeravg 34.5¢	$507.35	$500	-$7.35	65% 2092-1126 (3218)
elmcap2CTR	Johnny Walkeravg 33¢	$438.94	$445.59	+$6.65	89% 1725-207 (1932)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Waldo Cortes Acostaavg 67¢	$414	$410.91	-$3.09	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
StreamLIVE	Waldo Cortes Acostaavg 69.1¢	$276.35	$263.99	-$2	55% 1290-1053 (2343)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Johnny Walkeravg 35.1¢	$165.28	$162.35	-$2.93	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Waldo Cortes Acostaavg 66¢	$6.6	$6.6	+$0	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Invested

$20,877.13

Value

$20.9K

PnL

-$1.87

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

Multicoloured-Serf

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Invested

$17,340.59

Value

$17.2K

PnL

-$172.47

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

RaisuuCTR

Johnny Walker

Invested

$14,048.8

Value

$13.6K

PnL

-$448.8

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

VeryLucky888

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Invested

$14,103.64

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$196.98

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x76a0728837861C561eD4bE3bc31A32C76986FB5b-1769364941649

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Invested

$10,745.07

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$244.21

Record

26%

53-153 (206)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Johnny Walker

Invested

$7,351.21

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$324.32

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

Johnny Walker

Invested

$14.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$25.67

Record

63%

107-63 (170)

omnibus-076daa

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Invested

$1,360.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$41.23

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

frohp5CTR

Johnny Walker

Invested

$507.35

Value

$500

PnL

-$7.35

Record

65%

2092-1126 (3218)

elmcap2CTR

Johnny Walker

Invested

$438.94

Value

$445.59

PnL

+$6.65

Record

89%

1725-207 (1932)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Invested

$414

Value

$410.91

PnL

-$3.09

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

StreamLIVE

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Invested

$276.35

Value

$263.99

PnL

-$2

Record

55%

1290-1053 (2343)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Johnny Walker

Invested

$165.28

Value

$162.35

PnL

-$2.93

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

ameisgoat11<$100

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralWaldo Cortes Acosta at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Waldo Cortes Acosta

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Waldo Cortes Acosta wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.