Consensus PnL $113K · win rate 54% (841–722, n=1563) · was PM monthly #982 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$112.7K
Record
841W / 722L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 1563 settled
Batting Avg
68.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1476
Source
PM monthly #982 + pinned
Trades
17,066
Markets
2,560
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.3K · now 9¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
Specialties
2,326 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 51¢- NBA
+2 pts
side won 50% of 821 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +1%
- Finance
+15 pts
side won 71% of 35 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +14%
- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 53% of 60 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 50% of 104 at an average 52¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 15% of 379)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 44% of 622)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 61% of 910)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 86% of 415)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.