Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5

9 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 78¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 3

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

-$254.1

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 77.5¢

+42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 25 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares18,351

Combined PnL+$119.46

Over16 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares8,125

Combined PnL-$373.56

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA para-Vision	Underavg 50¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$63.06	56% 229-182 (411)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 54.5¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$414.42	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.5¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	-$777.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$981.26	$1.3K	+$362.64
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 34.7¢	$1.9K	$3.0K	+$1.0K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.7¢	$1.0K	$2.2K	+$1.1K
└ Over leg	Overavg 31¢	$869.49	$784.38	-$85.11
DA dashattacker	Underavg 69.8¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$85.78	73% 2827-1071 (3898)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$171.95	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 57.8¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$174.54	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$970.72	$674.02	-$226.7	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$235.53	$349.9	+$114.73
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$668.62	$324.12	-$341.44
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 50.2¢	$786.18	$594.23	-$191.94	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 59.3¢	$743.06	$420.06	-$322.99	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$292	$301	+$9	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$200	$202	+$2
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$92	$99	+$7
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$288.74	$289.11	+$0.37	50% 11609-11459 (23068)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.5¢	$144.57	$154.26	+$9.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.1¢	$144.17	$134.85	-$9.32
IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR	Overavg 31.3¢	$226.84	$162.76	-$35.01	33% 577-1167 (1744)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 84.2¢	$132.49	$115.77	-$16.72	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
└ Under leg	Underavg 31.5¢	$36.69	$88.46	+$51.77
└ Over leg	Overavg 84.2¢	$95.8	$27.31	-$68.48
VE Venusian	Underavg 51.2¢	$117.21	$115.49	-$1.72	53% 916-813 (1729)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 49¢	$107.8	$110.9	+$3.1	54% 5090-4308 (9398)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 50¢	$100.34	$101.36	+$1.02	32% 753-1598 (2351)
LI Limousin	Underavg 43.9¢	$169.86	$98.6	-$71.25	56% 942-736 (1678)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$51.29	$60.17	+$8.88	52% 830-771 (1601)
└ Under leg	Underavg 25.9¢	$33.93	$33.35	-$0.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.2¢	$17.37	$26.82	+$9.45
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$41.88	$42.98	+$1.1	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$43.63	$40.51	+$10.7	47% 10131-11459 (21590)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$47.05	$35.89	-$11.16	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 71.5¢	$28.6	$29.78	+$1.18	84% 14422-2759 (17181)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$22.3	$22.78	+$0.24	71% 6981-2792 (9773)
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$23.14	$22.33	-$0.8	15% 1116-6362 (7478)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$16.1	$16.45	+$0.35	58% 18597-13721 (32318)

para-Vision

Under

Invested

$6,104.08

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$63.06

Record

56%

229-182 (411)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,403.56

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$414.42

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Both legs:

Over$2,422.354.5¢-$777.05

Under$981.2646¢+$362.64

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,919.24

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Both legs:

Under$1,049.7534.7¢+$1.1K

Over$869.4931¢-$85.11

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,678.31

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$85.78

Record

73%

2827-1071 (3898)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,910.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$171.95

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,131.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$174.54

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$970.72

Value

$674.02

PnL

-$226.7

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Under$235.5351.2¢+$114.73

Over$668.6249.5¢-$341.44

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$786.18

Value

$594.23

PnL

-$191.94

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$743.06

Value

$420.06

PnL

-$322.99

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$292

Value

$301

PnL

+$9

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

Both legs:

Invested

$288.74

Value

$289.11

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

11609-11459 (23068)

Both legs:

Under$144.5745.5¢+$9.69

Over$144.1755.1¢-$9.32

IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR

Over

Invested

$226.84

Value

$162.76

PnL

-$35.01

Record

33%

577-1167 (1744)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$132.49

Value

$115.77

PnL

-$16.72

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

Both legs:

Under$36.6931.5¢+$51.77

Over$95.884.2¢-$68.48

Venusian

Under

Invested

$117.21

Value

$115.49

PnL

-$1.72

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$107.8

Value

$110.9

PnL

+$3.1

Record

54%

5090-4308 (9398)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$100.34

Value

$101.36

PnL

+$1.02

Record

32%

753-1598 (2351)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$169.86

Value

$98.6

PnL

-$71.25

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$51.29

Value

$60.17

PnL

+$8.88

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Both legs:

Under$33.9325.9¢-$0.57

Over$17.3748.2¢+$9.45

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.88

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$1.1

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.63

Value

$40.51

PnL

+$10.7

Record

47%

10131-11459 (21590)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.05

Value

$35.89

PnL

-$11.16

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.6

Value

$29.78

PnL

+$1.18

Record

84%

14422-2759 (17181)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.3

Value

$22.78

PnL

+$0.24

Record

71%

6981-2792 (9773)

0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.14

Value

$22.33

PnL

-$0.8

Record

15%

1116-6362 (7478)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.1

Value

$16.45

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 25 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.