Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 0.5¢ · $580 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$579.82

Combined PnL

-$336.23

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$188.6

Total Shares738

Combined PnL-$341.36

Down5 traders

Total Value$211.84

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$5.13

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 62.1¢	$185.02	$126.28	-$58.74	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.1¢	$163.53	$82.9	-$80.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.9¢	$21.49	$43.39	+$21.9
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 66.6¢	$357.96	$122.03	-$235.93	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$72.17	$72.59	+$0.42	55% 1723-1417 (3140)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$61.96	$70.14	+$8.18	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$61.41	$57.32	-$4.09	56% 8907-6974 (15881)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 32.3¢	$49.66	$53.11	+$3.44	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.3¢	$31.95	$31.19	-$0.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$17.72	$21.92	+$4.2
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$34.92	$25.09	-$9.82	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$24.97	$23.29	-$1.68	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$15.19	$15.5	+$0.31	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$7.69	$7.48	+$0.5	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$4.18	$4.31	+$0.12	65% 114714-61743 (176457)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 4.1¢	$2.13	$1.84	-$0.29	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$49.03	$0.47	-$48.57	49% 10667-11322 (21989)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$15.25	$0.13	-$15.13	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$15.25	$0.13	-$15.13	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$15.25	$0.13	-$15.13	55% 50268-41869 (92137)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$185.02

Value

$126.28

PnL

-$58.74

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Up$163.5362.1¢-$80.64

Down$21.4933.9¢+$21.9

ply-pm2CTR

Invested

$357.96

Value

$122.03

PnL

-$235.93

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e<$100

Down

Invested

$72.17

Value

$72.59

PnL

+$0.42

Record

55%

1723-1417 (3140)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$61.96

Value

$70.14

PnL

+$8.18

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$61.41

Value

$57.32

PnL

-$4.09

Record

56%

8907-6974 (15881)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$49.66

Value

$53.11

PnL

+$3.44

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

Both legs:

Up$31.9532.3¢-$0.76

Down$17.7255.4¢+$4.2

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$34.92

Value

$25.09

PnL

-$9.82

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$24.97

Value

$23.29

PnL

-$1.68

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$15.19

Value

$15.5

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$7.69

Value

$7.48

PnL

+$0.5

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.12

Record

65%

114714-61743 (176457)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$0.29

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$49.03

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$48.57

Record

49%

10667-11322 (21989)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$15.25

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$15.13

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$15.25

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$15.13

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$15.25

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$15.13

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.