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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$410.57

Combined PnL

-$235.28

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$338.68

Total Shares339

Combined PnL-$35.35

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares574

Combined PnL-$199.92

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 99¢	$125.49	$100	-$25.49	49% 10667-11322 (21989)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$134.99	$71.89	-$63.1	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90¢	$64.7	$71.89	+$7.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.7¢	$70.29	—	-$70.29
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 76.4¢	$60.29	$60.13	-$0.16	56% 8907-6974 (15881)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 82.9¢	$59.95	$57.5	-$2.45	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 76.2¢	$55.2	$55.56	+$0.36	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 48¢	$106.45	—	-$106.45	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 21.9¢	$32.08	—	-$32.08	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 94.5¢	$35.29	$30.08	-$5.21	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99.1¢	$26.3	$25	-$1.3	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 26.7¢	$44.2	—	-$44.2	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$12.67	$10.41	-$1.11	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 19.6¢	$12.2	—	-$12.2	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$3.2	—	-$3.2	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	61% 46204-29379 (75583)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$125.49

Value

$100

PnL

-$25.49

Record

49%

10667-11322 (21989)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$134.99

Value

$71.89

PnL

-$63.1

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Up$64.790¢+$7.19

Down$70.2929.7¢-$70.29

Invested

$60.29

Value

$60.13

PnL

-$0.16

Record

56%

8907-6974 (15881)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$59.95

Value

$57.5

PnL

-$2.45

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

Invested

$55.2

Value

$55.56

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$106.45

Value

—

PnL

-$106.45

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$32.08

Value

—

PnL

-$32.08

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

Invested

$35.29

Value

$30.08

PnL

-$5.21

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$26.3

Value

$25

PnL

-$1.3

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$44.2

Value

—

PnL

-$44.2

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$12.67

Value

$10.41

PnL

-$1.11

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

—

PnL

-$12.2

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

—

PnL

-$3.2

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa1e016ea...27ce68

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794044400

Traders in this Market

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $100

pspspsps5

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Up — $60.13

blue.birds

Up — $57.5

asdcaxz

Up — $55.56

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

asdaefef

Up — $30.08

asidjasiodja

Up — $25

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

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