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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$184.73

Combined PnL

-$261.69

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$94.44

Total Shares94

Combined PnL-$2.46

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$259.23

Down — 20%Up — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 75.1¢	$219.79	$90.29	-$129.49	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.1¢	$169.69	—	-$169.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$50.09	$90.29	+$40.2
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$72.1	$75.17	+$3.07	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 72.7¢	$107.9	—	-$107.9	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$35.81	—	-$35.81	56% 8907-6974 (15881)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$24.79	$19.27	-$5.52	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$46.21	—	-$46.21	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$8.13	—	-$8.13	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 32.6¢	$9.77	—	-$9.77	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$4.3	—	-$4.3	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$4.84	—	-$4.84	65% 114714-61743 (176457)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$42.28	—	-$42.28	49% 10667-11322 (21989)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$219.79

Value

$90.29

PnL

-$129.49

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Up$169.6975.1¢-$169.69

Down$50.0955.5¢+$40.2

Invested

$72.1

Value

$75.17

PnL

+$3.07

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

Invested

$107.9

Value

—

PnL

-$107.9

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$35.81

Value

—

PnL

-$35.81

Record

56%

8907-6974 (15881)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$24.79

Value

$19.27

PnL

-$5.52

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$46.21

Value

—

PnL

-$46.21

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$8.13

Value

—

PnL

-$8.13

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$9.77

Value

—

PnL

-$9.77

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

—

PnL

-$4.3

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

—

PnL

-$4.84

Record

65%

114714-61743 (176457)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$42.28

Value

—

PnL

-$42.28

Record

49%

10667-11322 (21989)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x500169bf...5f407b

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794044700

Traders in this Market

pspspsps5

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Down — $75.17

ply-pm2

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

blue.birds

Down — $19.27

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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