Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 14 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 0.5¢ · $757 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$756.58

Combined PnL

-$246.75

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$473.67

Total Shares493

Combined PnL-$7.72

Down14 traders

Total Value$282.89

Total Shares1,092

Combined PnL-$239.03

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 95¢	$138.7	$145.32	+$6.62	89% 29513-3559 (33072)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 35.5¢	$115.31	$125.2	+$9.89	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 74.7¢	$109.65	$110.83	+$1.18	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 54.7¢	$275.98	$110.18	-$165.8	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$98.35	$85.74	-$12.61	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$63.07	$57.76	-$5.32	56% 8907-6974 (15881)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a<$100	Upavg 63.4¢	$47.22	$52.52	+$5.3	52% 2167-1972 (4139)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 36.6¢	$18.94	$12.41	-$6.53	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 57.9¢	$18.49	$11.66	+$1.23	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 82.1¢	$13.96	$9.83	-$4.13	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$9.63	$9.44	-$0.19	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 7.3¢	$8.49	$8.7	+$0.21	59% 63933-45082 (109015)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$4.08	$5	+$0.92	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 33.6¢	$18.68	$4.73	-$13.96	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$4.12	$3.75	-$0.37	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$4.8	$1.28	-$3.53	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 9.6¢	$0.48	$0.78	+$0.3	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 13.8¢	$1.91	$0.76	-$1.15	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 42.2¢	$35.49	$0.42	-$35.07	49% 10667-11322 (21989)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$12	$0.13	-$11.88	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$12	$0.13	-$11.88	55% 52367-42838 (95205)

hoodquant

Invested

$138.7

Value

$145.32

PnL

+$6.62

Record

89%

29513-3559 (33072)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$115.31

Value

$125.2

PnL

+$9.89

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

asdcaxz

Invested

$109.65

Value

$110.83

PnL

+$1.18

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

ply-pm2CTR

Down

Invested

$275.98

Value

$110.18

PnL

-$165.8

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$98.35

Value

$85.74

PnL

-$12.61

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

13897651<$100

Invested

$63.07

Value

$57.76

PnL

-$5.32

Record

56%

8907-6974 (15881)

0xdc27...afdd9a<$100

Invested

$47.22

Value

$52.52

PnL

+$5.3

Record

52%

2167-1972 (4139)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.94

Value

$12.41

PnL

-$6.53

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$18.49

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$1.23

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$13.96

Value

$9.83

PnL

-$4.13

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.63

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$0.19

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.49

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0.21

Record

59%

63933-45082 (109015)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.08

Value

PnL

+$0.92

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.68

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$13.96

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.12

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.37

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$3.53

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.3

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$1.15

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.49

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$35.07

Record

49%

10667-11322 (21989)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$11.88

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$11.88

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.