Solana Up or Down - November 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $301 held · ends Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$301.44

Combined PnL

$8.91

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 99.5¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$211.46

Total Shares220

Combined PnL+$44.82

Down5 traders

Total Value$89.98

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$35.91

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Upavg 76.5¢	$140.57	$180.66	+$40.09	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$74	$50.98	-$23.02	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$26.75	$25	-$1.75	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$8.97	$17.36	+$8.39	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 42.6¢	$10.13	$10.82	+$0.69	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 84¢	$9.09	$5.97	-$3.12	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 95.3¢	$4.77	$4.53	-$0.24	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$14.99	$3.15	-$11.84	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 32.5¢	$3.25	$2.95	-$0.3	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0.01	65% 114604-61650 (176254)

pspspsps5

Invested

$140.57

Value

$180.66

PnL

+$40.09

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$74

Value

$50.98

PnL

-$23.02

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.75

Value

$25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$17.36

PnL

+$8.39

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.82

PnL

+$0.69

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

$5.97

PnL

-$3.12

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.24

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.99

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$11.84

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.3

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.