Solana Up or Down - November 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (62%) · Down at 100¢ · $481 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

Total Value

$480.6

Combined PnL

-$113.79

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$360.98

Total Shares377

Combined PnL+$8.5

Up5 traders

Total Value$119.61

Total Shares344

Combined PnL-$122.29

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$187.82	$187.73	-$0.1	59% 63904-45042 (108946)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$67.1	$59.85	-$7.25	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 59.2¢	$53.77	$51.14	-$2.63	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$28.54	$46.97	+$18.42	48% 10624-11292 (21916)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$38.99	$38.44	-$0.55	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 71.1¢	$39.8	$32.95	-$6.86	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$28.23	$26.35	-$1.88	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$17.37	$12.88	-$4.48	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 62¢	$6.82	$10.99	+$4.17	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 98.1¢	$4.91	$4.68	-$0.23	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 98.1¢	$4.99	$4.48	-$0.51	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
HO hoodquantCTR<$100	Upavg 99¢	$10.89	$4.04	-$6.85	89% 29392-3557 (32949)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 51.8¢	$105.15	$0.1	-$105.05	51% 10575-10032 (20607)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$187.82

Value

$187.73

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

63904-45042 (108946)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$67.1

Value

$59.85

PnL

-$7.25

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$53.77

Value

$51.14

PnL

-$2.63

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$28.54

Value

$46.97

PnL

+$18.42

Record

48%

10624-11292 (21916)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$38.99

Value

$38.44

PnL

-$0.55

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$39.8

Value

$32.95

PnL

-$6.86

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$28.23

Value

$26.35

PnL

-$1.88

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$17.37

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$4.48

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$6.82

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$4.17

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.23

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.51

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

hoodquantCTR<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$4.04

PnL

-$6.85

Record

89%

29392-3557 (32949)

ply-pm2CTR

Invested

$105.15

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$105.05

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.