Solana Up or Down - November 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 89¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 7

Up89¢Down11¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$104.44

Combined PnL

-$6.55

Research grade

NeutralUp at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up89%

Down12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$87.98

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$4.22

Down3 traders

Total Value$16.46

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$10.77

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$38.77	$41.97	+$3.2	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$17.06	$18.55	+$1.49	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$14.77	$13.25	-$1.52	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$13.17	$12	-$1.17	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$4.09	$5.95	+$1.86	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$4.79	$5.53	+$0.75	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 47.6¢	$12.97	$3.14	-$9.83	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$8.01	$2.72	-$1.56	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 35.6¢	$1.1	$1.33	+$0.23	49% 81012-84457 (165469)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$38.77

Value

$41.97

PnL

+$3.2

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$17.06

Value

$18.55

PnL

+$1.49

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$14.77

Value

$13.25

PnL

-$1.52

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.17

Value

$12

PnL

-$1.17

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.09

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$1.86

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$0.75

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.97

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$9.83

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.01

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$1.56

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.