Solana Up or Down - November 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 100¢ · $436 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

Total Value

$435.99

Combined PnL

-$1.42

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$416.33

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$1.02

Up4 traders

Total Value$19.66

Total Shares141

Combined PnL-$0.4

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 78.5¢	$134.97	$143.84	+$8.87	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
pspspsps5	Downavg 84.1¢	$133.96	$132.54	-$1.41	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$66.53	$59.59	-$6.94	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$32.04	$30.43	-$1.61	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 90.8¢	$25.62	$23.72	-$1.9	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$12.08	$16.5	+$4.43	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$14.22	$14.57	+$0.35	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 77¢	$10.01	$11.64	+$1.63	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$3.39	$2.62	-$0.77	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.53	-$0.43	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 17.3¢	$3.64	$0.01	-$3.63	48% 10624-11292 (21916)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$134.97

Value

$143.84

PnL

+$8.87

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$133.96

Value

$132.54

PnL

-$1.41

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$66.53

Value

$59.59

PnL

-$6.94

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$32.04

Value

$30.43

PnL

-$1.61

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$25.62

Value

$23.72

PnL

-$1.9

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$4.43

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$14.22

Value

$14.57

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$10.01

Value

$11.64

PnL

+$1.63

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$0.77

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.43

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.63

Record

48%

10624-11292 (21916)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.