Solana Up or Down - November 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $129 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 67%
$128.95
$3.21
81.3¢ → 100¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 87.7¢ | $58 | $62.56 | +$4.56 | 45% 40136-48079 (88215) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 75.1¢ | $47.3 | $47.29 | -$0.01 | 48% 6593-7284 (13877) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $11.69 | $11.78 | +$0.09 | 51% 12116-11612 (23728) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.92 | $3.74 | -$1.17 | 56% 8820-6894 (15714) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $2.82 | $2.63 | -$0.2 | 52% 12342-11390 (23732) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $1.01 | $0.96 | -$0.05 | 65% 130321-70183 (200504) |
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$58
Value
$62.56
PnL
+$4.56
Record
45%
40136-48079 (88215)
Invested
$47.3
Value
$47.29
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
6593-7284 (13877)
Invested
$11.69
Value
$11.78
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
12116-11612 (23728)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$3.74
PnL
-$1.17
Record
56%
8820-6894 (15714)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
12342-11390 (23732)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.05
Record
65%
130321-70183 (200504)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.