Solana Up or Down - November 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 100¢ · $205 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
9
Down 78%
$205.31
-$9.72
76.3¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 59.8¢ | $42.54 | $45.68 | +$3.14 | 48% 6593-7284 (13877) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $44.52 | $41.94 | -$2.58 | 51% 10575-10032 (20607) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $30.28 | $29.98 | -$0.3 | 59% 63904-45042 (108946) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 13.6¢ | $33.97 | $24.66 | -$9.31 | 45% 40136-48079 (88215) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $16.5 | $18.09 | +$1.59 | 56% 8820-6894 (15714) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $16.2 | $17.28 | +$1.08 | 51% 12116-11612 (23728) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.68 | $12.8 | +$0.12 | 89% 29392-3557 (32949) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 70.8¢ | $13.85 | $10.16 | -$3.33 | 65% 130321-70183 (200504) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $4.84 | $4.72 | -$0.12 | 65% 114604-61650 (176254) |
Invested
$42.54
Value
$45.68
PnL
+$3.14
Record
48%
6593-7284 (13877)
Invested
$44.52
Value
$41.94
PnL
-$2.58
Record
51%
10575-10032 (20607)
Invested
$30.28
Value
$29.98
PnL
-$0.3
Record
59%
63904-45042 (108946)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$33.97
Value
$24.66
PnL
-$9.31
Record
45%
40136-48079 (88215)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$18.09
PnL
+$1.59
Record
56%
8820-6894 (15714)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$17.28
PnL
+$1.08
Record
51%
12116-11612 (23728)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$12.8
PnL
+$0.12
Record
89%
29392-3557 (32949)
Invested
$13.85
Value
$10.16
PnL
-$3.33
Record
65%
130321-70183 (200504)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.72
PnL
-$0.12
Record
65%
114604-61650 (176254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.