Solana Up or Down - November 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 100¢ · $373 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

Total Value

$372.74

Combined PnL

$5.73

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$354.61

Total Shares370

Combined PnL+$12.29

Up2 traders

Total Value$18.13

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$6.56

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 79.3¢	$116.29	$126.71	+$10.42	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 77.4¢	$100.58	$103.79	+$3.21	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$47.96	$45.6	-$2.36	56% 77408-59804 (137212)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 87.8¢	$25.4	$25	-$0.4	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$24.17	$21.02	-$3.15	56% 8800-6875 (15675)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$16.22	$20.9	+$4.68	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 17.6¢	$21.13	$14.78	-$6.35	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$11.73	$11.59	-$0.11	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 35.6¢	$3.56	$3.35	-$0.21	56% 60559-47106 (107665)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$116.29

Value

$126.71

PnL

+$10.42

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$100.58

Value

$103.79

PnL

+$3.21

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$47.96

Value

$45.6

PnL

-$2.36

Record

56%

77408-59804 (137212)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$25.4

Value

$25

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$24.17

Value

$21.02

PnL

-$3.15

Record

56%

8800-6875 (15675)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$16.22

Value

$20.9

PnL

+$4.68

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$21.13

Value

$14.78

PnL

-$6.35

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$11.73

Value

$11.59

PnL

-$0.11

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.21

Record

56%

60559-47106 (107665)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.