Solana Up or Down - November 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $467 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
8
Up 100%
$467.12
$2.21
88.2¢ → 100¢
+13% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 96.8¢ | $265.15 | $253.97 | -$11.17 | 46% 40118-48047 (88165) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 74.1¢ | $61.49 | $82.92 | +$21.43 | 51% 10526-9985 (20511) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 82.5¢ | $43.44 | $44.75 | +$1.31 | 47% 6557-7261 (13818) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $33.84 | $33.81 | -$0.03 | 56% 77408-59804 (137212) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $21.95 | $21.63 | -$0.32 | 51% 12098-11574 (23672) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 96.3¢ | $23.09 | $14.51 | -$8.58 | 49% 80989-84429 (165418) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $12.13 | $12.93 | +$0.8 | 56% 8800-6875 (15675) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 73.4¢ | $3.82 | $2.6 | -$1.22 | 65% 130293-70158 (200451) |
pspspsps5Invested
$265.15
Value
$253.97
PnL
-$11.17
Record
46%
40118-48047 (88165)
Invested
$61.49
Value
$82.92
PnL
+$21.43
Record
51%
10526-9985 (20511)
Invested
$43.44
Value
$44.75
PnL
+$1.31
Record
47%
6557-7261 (13818)
Invested
$33.84
Value
$33.81
PnL
-$0.03
Record
56%
77408-59804 (137212)
Invested
$21.95
Value
$21.63
PnL
-$0.32
Record
51%
12098-11574 (23672)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$23.09
Value
$14.51
PnL
-$8.58
Record
49%
80989-84429 (165418)
Invested
$12.13
Value
$12.93
PnL
+$0.8
Record
56%
8800-6875 (15675)
Invested
$3.82
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$1.22
Record
65%
130293-70158 (200451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.