Solana Up or Down - November 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (83%) · Up at 100¢ · $136 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

Total Value

$136.42

Combined PnL

$0.88

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$131.81

Total Shares137

Combined PnL+$1.65

Down2 traders

Total Value$4.61

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$0.78

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 77.7¢	$44.55	$47.16	+$2.61	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$22.89	$27.95	+$5.06	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 61.6¢	$6.26	$10.16	+$3.89	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 93.5¢	$10.94	$10.1	-$0.84	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$9.15	$9.24	+$0.09	89% 29358-3557 (32915)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99.1¢	$10.93	$8	-$2.93	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$9.52	$7	-$2.52	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$6.76	$5	-$1.76	56% 77408-59804 (137212)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$5.49	$3.93	-$0.15	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$5.08	$3.29	-$1.79	65% 114590-61630 (176220)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$1.2	$2.5	+$1.3	56% 8800-6875 (15675)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$4.18	$2.11	-$2.08	49% 80989-84429 (165418)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$44.55

Value

$47.16

PnL

+$2.61

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$22.89

Value

$27.95

PnL

+$5.06

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$6.26

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$3.89

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$10.94

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.84

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.09

Record

89%

29358-3557 (32915)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$10.93

Value

PnL

-$2.93

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

PnL

-$2.52

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$6.76

Value

PnL

-$1.76

Record

56%

77408-59804 (137212)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.49

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.15

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$1.79

Record

65%

114590-61630 (176220)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

56%

8800-6875 (15675)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.18

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$2.08

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.