Solana Up or Down - November 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 100¢ · $486 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$486.13

Combined PnL

-$26.69

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$370.15

Total Shares434

Combined PnL+$7.59

Down4 traders

Total Value$5.28

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$34.28

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Upavg 63.7¢	$144.1	$160.93	+$16.83	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 79.6¢	$140.64	$128.02	-$12.62	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$111.32	$110.7	-$0.62	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$70.31	$85.32	+$15.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.1¢	$41.01	$25.37	-$15.64
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$35.34	$35.22	-$0.12	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 62¢	$19.8	$20	+$0.2	56% 8800-6875 (15675)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$9.93	$9.9	-$0.04	65% 114590-61630 (176220)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$8.72	$9.83	+$1.15	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$4.08	$6.26	+$2.19	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$3.4	$3.45	+$0.05	56% 77408-59804 (137212)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$1.88	$1.78	-$0.11	61% 46098-29272 (75370)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 30.6¢	$26.78	$0.04	-$26.74	48% 10610-11273 (21883)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 34.5¢	$7.5	$0.01	-$7.49	55% 51661-42834 (94495)

pspspsps5

Invested

$144.1

Value

$160.93

PnL

+$16.83

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

ply-pm2

Invested

$140.64

Value

$128.02

PnL

-$12.62

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$111.32

Value

$110.7

PnL

-$0.62

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

Both legs:

Up$70.3165.5¢+$15.02

Down$41.0133.1¢-$15.64

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$35.34

Value

$35.22

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

13897651<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

8800-6875 (15675)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$9.93

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.04

Record

65%

114590-61630 (176220)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.72

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$1.15

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$6.26

PnL

+$2.19

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

77408-59804 (137212)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.11

Record

61%

46098-29272 (75370)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.78

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$26.74

Record

48%

10610-11273 (21883)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.49

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.