Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (25%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $358 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Down
8
Down 25%
1 arb excluded
$357.89
-$141.79
55.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidDown at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 54¢ | $234.94 | $127.11 | -$107.83 | 51% 10526-9985 (20511) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $61.01 | $60.52 | -$0.49 | 47% 6557-7261 (13818) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.6¢ | $21.94 | $32.4 | +$10.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.9¢ | $39.07 | $28.12 | -$10.96 | |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $37.56 | $39.35 | +$1.79 | 46% 40118-48047 (88165) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 57.9¢ | $32.03 | $29.04 | -$3 | 56% 77408-59804 (137212) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 67.7¢ | $38.06 | $26.45 | -$11.61 | 51% 12098-11574 (23672) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $42.92 | $23.43 | -$19.49 | 55% 51661-42834 (94495) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 47.9¢ | $31.54 | $23.19 | -$8.35 | 65% 114590-61630 (176220) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 25.3¢ | $4.22 | $16.72 | +$12.49 | 48% 10610-11273 (21883) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 59.8¢ | $17.9 | $12.1 | -$5.8 | 56% 8800-6875 (15675) |
Invested
$234.94
Value
$127.11
PnL
-$107.83
Record
51%
10526-9985 (20511)
Invested
$61.01
Value
$60.52
PnL
-$0.49
Record
47%
6557-7261 (13818)
Both legs:
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$37.56
Value
$39.35
PnL
+$1.79
Record
46%
40118-48047 (88165)
Invested
$32.03
Value
$29.04
PnL
-$3
Record
56%
77408-59804 (137212)
Invested
$38.06
Value
$26.45
PnL
-$11.61
Record
51%
12098-11574 (23672)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$42.92
Value
$23.43
PnL
-$19.49
Record
55%
51661-42834 (94495)
Invested
$31.54
Value
$23.19
PnL
-$8.35
Record
65%
114590-61630 (176220)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$4.22
Value
$16.72
PnL
+$12.49
Record
48%
10610-11273 (21883)
Invested
$17.9
Value
$12.1
PnL
-$5.8
Record
56%
8800-6875 (15675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.