FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

-$199.97

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares14,192

Combined PnL-$96.51

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.58

Total Shares8,503

Combined PnL-$103.45

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Malfunction.	Overavg 99.6¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$21.17	96% 14627-642 (15269)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 96.9¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$57.98	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 93.1¢	$403.78	$370.01	-$31.2	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
RN1	Overavg 94¢	$409.84	$250.3	-$159.54	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 84¢	$179.77	$153.7	+$2.7	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 99.2¢	$131.66	$126.98	-$4.68	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 93.7¢	$118.94	$120.21	+$1.27	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 85¢	$88.39	$103.94	+$15.55	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Overavg 99¢	$15.89	$16.04	+$0.15	53% 2209-1983 (4192)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 84¢	$13.67	$8.17	+$0.09	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
AP apprentice15CTR<$100	Underavg 0.4¢	$32.48	$3.89	-$28.59	43% 507-674 (1181)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$24.69	$3.33	-$0.62	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$6.99	$1.01	-$0.1	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 15.9¢	$56.33	$0.18	-$56.15	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 5.3¢	$18.16	$0.17	-$17.99	48% 2079-2257 (4336)

Malfunction.

Over

Invested

$6,940.34

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$21.17

Record

96%

14627-642 (15269)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$5,984.8

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$57.98

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$403.78

Value

$370.01

PnL

-$31.2

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

RN1

Over

Invested

$409.84

Value

$250.3

PnL

-$159.54

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$179.77

Value

$153.7

PnL

+$2.7

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$131.66

Value

$126.98

PnL

-$4.68

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$118.94

Value

$120.21

PnL

+$1.27

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$88.39

Value

$103.94

PnL

+$15.55

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Over

Invested

$15.89

Value

$16.04

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

2209-1983 (4192)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$13.67

Value

$8.17

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

apprentice15CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.48

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$28.59

Record

43%

507-674 (1181)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.69

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.62

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.99

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.33

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$56.15

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.16

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$17.99

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.