Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 70¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 65%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

-$285.6

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 70.2¢

-17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 70%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares14,913

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares20,477

Combined PnL+$836.7

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 87.2¢	$5.3K	$4.5K	-$485.26	53% 3230-2902 (6132)
0X 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49	Noavg 80.1¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$229.57	91% 88-9 (97)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$227.21	50% 301-297 (598)
Haradwaith	Noavg 86.3¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$312.12	40% 6536-9791 (16327)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$536.56	$930.78	+$413.77	24% 41-132 (173)
yen4u	Noavg 87.5¢	$530.44	$459.51	-$70.93	85% 921-159 (1080)
donube	Noavg 90.1¢	$531.78	$403.09	-$75.96	61% 875-556 (1431)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 21.2¢	$528.17	$337.34	+$120.65	56% 18822-14981 (33803)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 24.9¢	$291.46	$302.74	+$17.52	47% 118-132 (250)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 82.8¢	$243.89	$223.32	-$20.56	72% 3577-1363 (4940)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 12.7¢	$62.78	$128.24	+$40.95	68% 2112-996 (3108)
AN anciano<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$69.5	$74.6	+$6.2	54% 1460-1226 (2686)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.6¢	$814.92	$48.08	+$71.77	34% 19214-36845 (56059)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$13.53	$42.76	+$16.6	19% 2881-12261 (15142)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$32.35	$28.99	-$3.37	58% 21239-15426 (36665)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 96¢	$11.59	$9	-$2.58	77% 12698-3875 (16573)
JE Jest55<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.46	+$0.09	76% 1120-351 (1471)

ImJustKen

Invested

$5,299.88

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$485.26

Record

53%

3230-2902 (6132)

0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49

Invested

$4,247.67

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$229.57

Record

91%

88-9 (97)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,387.78

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$227.21

Record

50%

301-297 (598)

Haradwaith

Invested

$1,918.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$312.12

Record

40%

6536-9791 (16327)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$536.56

Value

$930.78

PnL

+$413.77

Record

24%

41-132 (173)

yen4u

Invested

$530.44

Value

$459.51

PnL

-$70.93

Record

85%

921-159 (1080)

donube

Invested

$531.78

Value

$403.09

PnL

-$75.96

Record

61%

875-556 (1431)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$528.17

Value

$337.34

PnL

+$120.65

Record

56%

18822-14981 (33803)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$291.46

Value

$302.74

PnL

+$17.52

Record

47%

118-132 (250)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$243.89

Value

$223.32

PnL

-$20.56

Record

72%

3577-1363 (4940)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.78

Value

$128.24

PnL

+$40.95

Record

68%

2112-996 (3108)

anciano<$100

Invested

$69.5

Value

$74.6

PnL

+$6.2

Record

54%

1460-1226 (2686)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$814.92

Value

$48.08

PnL

+$71.77

Record

34%

19214-36845 (56059)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.53

Value

$42.76

PnL

+$16.6

Record

19%

2881-12261 (15142)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.35

Value

$28.99

PnL

-$3.37

Record

58%

21239-15426 (36665)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$11.59

Value

PnL

-$2.58

Record

77%

12698-3875 (16573)

Jest55<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$0.09

Record

76%

1120-351 (1471)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 70%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.