Known as morito181 since Nov 5 2026 · Previously known as: morito181 (Nov 3 – Nov 5 2026), tetrase (Oct 22 – Nov 2 2026), ED99999 (Oct 3 2026)
Consensus PnL $1.1M · win rate 70% (709–303, n=1012) · PM monthly #105 · holds 177 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.1M
Record
709W / 303L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 1012 settled
Batting Avg
65.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#499
Source
PM monthly #105 + pinned
Record (90 d)
235/291 · 81%
Trades
105,572
Markets
1,706
Volume
$27.9M
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Top consensus positions
177 in listed consensus markets · 141 of 177 on the consensus side (80%)- Trump out as President before 2027?No $57K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (90% of 60)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $53K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (89% of 38)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $46K · now 77¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (65% of 126)
- Plague pandemic in 2026?No $42K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $39K · now 96¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (90% of 31)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $37K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (68% of 29)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $30K · now 91¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (60% of 75)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $29K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (90% of 29)
Specialties
918 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 70¢- Politics
+3 pts
side won 87% of 71 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 67% of 51 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +2%
- Economy
+6 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 60¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 45% of 20 at an average 58¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 6% of 202)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 43% of 49)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 53% of 55)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 96% of 612)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.