Consensus PnL $175K · win rate 91% (84–8, n=92) · was PM monthly #936 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$174.6K
Record
84W / 8L
Win Rate
91.0%
of 92 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#246
Source
PM monthly #936
Record (90 d)
10/12 · 83%
Trades
36
Markets
106
Volume
$15.4M
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $270K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (82% of 145)
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?No $132K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $13K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (75% of 28)
Specialties
95 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 91¢- Economy
+4 pts
side won 97% of 34 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 90% of 20 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +1%
- Elections
+8 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 20% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 91%(won 98% of 86)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.