Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 242.5

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over69¢Under31¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$95.34

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 68.5¢

-14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,744

Combined PnL-$43.33

Under8 traders

Total Value$510.85

Total Shares858

Combined PnL-$52.01

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 82.4¢	$3.8K	$2.3K	$-1.3K	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1CTR	Underavg 87¢	$367.69	$325.54	-$42.15	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 84.9¢	$289.32	$103.73	-$0.64	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
└ Over leg	Overavg 84.9¢	$63.81	$57.52	-$0.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 20.4¢	$40.15	$46.21	-$0.47
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 26.4¢	$1.1K	$93.81	+$1.3K	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 83.8¢	$86.62	$62.16	-$14.36	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 22.8¢	$53.64	$43.57	-$10.07	37% 841-1416 (2257)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 22.5¢	$40.15	$38.35	+$13.78	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 47¢	$28.92	$32.3	+$3.38	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$24	$25.5	+$1.5	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 40.4¢	$42.91	$24.13	-$18.78	45% 712-885 (1597)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$22.11	$22.32	+$0.21	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 90¢	$21.27	$21.13	-$0.14	64% 535-298 (833)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 32.7¢	$17.13	$18.23	+$1.09	50% 368-373 (741)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$10.8	$13.2	+$2.4	34% 347-673 (1020)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 85.9¢	$11.85	$11.16	-$0.69	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
AN anothercoin<$100	Overavg 65¢	$8.32	$10.43	+$2.11	37% 1515-2566 (4081)
MI micky456<$100	Overavg 89.9¢	$8.19	$7.52	-$0.67	47% 489-544 (1033)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$3,762.06

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$367.69

Value

$325.54

PnL

-$42.15

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$289.32

Value

$103.73

PnL

-$0.64

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Both legs:

Over$63.8184.9¢-$0.17

Under$40.1520.4¢-$0.47

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,064.37

Value

$93.81

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$86.62

Value

$62.16

PnL

-$14.36

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.64

Value

$43.57

PnL

-$10.07

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.15

Value

$38.35

PnL

+$13.78

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$28.92

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$3.38

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.91

Value

$24.13

PnL

-$18.78

Record

45%

712-885 (1597)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.11

Value

$22.32

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$21.27

Value

$21.13

PnL

-$0.14

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.13

Value

$18.23

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.8

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$2.4

Record

34%

347-673 (1020)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$11.85

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$0.69

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

anothercoin<$100

Over

Invested

$8.32

Value

$10.43

PnL

+$2.11

Record

37%

1515-2566 (4081)

micky456<$100

Over

Invested

$8.19

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$0.67

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.