Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Rockets (55%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-3.5)

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (63%) · Jazz at 45¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

Rockets55¢Jazz45¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$710.2

Smart Money Entry

25.7¢ → 45¢

+75% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets55%

Jazz45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz10 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares18,477

Combined PnL+$328.08

Rockets6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,936

Combined PnL+$382.12

Jazz — 63%Rockets — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Jazzavg 27¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$443.9	51% 3833-3624 (7457)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Rocketsavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$362.6	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jazzavg 20.3¢	$299.81	$665.44	+$365.63	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 17.8¢	$245.57	$620.1	+$374.53	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Rocketsavg 56¢	$439.27	$416.81	-$22.47	48% 465-495 (960)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 56¢	$281.77	$289.31	+$7.53
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 52.5¢	$157.5	$127.5	-$30
RN1ARB<$100	Jazzavg 27¢	$439.72	$411.52	-$28.2	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 27¢	$280	$274.81	-$5.19
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 85.9¢	$159.72	$136.71	-$23.01
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Jazzavg 43.7¢	$294.55	$286.45	-$8.1	44% 422-532 (954)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 53.9¢	$294.12	$284.72	-$9.4	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 53.9¢	$154.95	$191.26	+$36.31
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.9¢	$139.18	$93.46	-$45.71
MI micky456CTR	Jazzavg 26.4¢	$264.92	$266.06	+$1.14	47% 489-544 (1033)
FO forecastication4	Rocketsavg 83¢	$134.46	$140.94	+$6.48	32% 147-308 (455)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jazzavg 17¢	$160.66	$122.86	-$37.8	36% 911-1587 (2498)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Jazzavg 12¢	$38.19	$99.57	+$61.38	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rocketsavg 70.7¢	$986.83	$96.14	-$6.05	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
38 38791873984189	Rocketsavg 80.2¢	$475.84	$70.88	+$26.55	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jazzavg 30¢	$26.14	$37.03	+$10.89	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
alpheclabs2<$100	Rocketsavg 57.1¢	$5.48	$8.35	+$2.87	45% 259-311 (570)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Jazzavg 18.9¢	$3.12	$7.43	+$4.31	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 83¢	$60.84	$7.34	-$10.34	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazzavg 13¢	$1.34	$1.34	+$0	43% 920-1244 (2164)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Jazz

Invested

$3,424.4

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$443.9

Record

51%

3833-3624 (7457)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rockets

Invested

$1,064.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$362.6

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

FlaznorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$299.81

Value

$665.44

PnL

+$365.63

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$245.57

Value

$620.1

PnL

+$374.53

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$439.27

Value

$416.81

PnL

-$22.47

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

Both legs:

Rockets$281.7756¢+$7.53

Jazz$157.552.5¢-$30

RN1ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$439.72

Value

$411.52

PnL

-$28.2

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Both legs:

Jazz$28027¢-$5.19

Rockets$159.7285.9¢-$23.01

justaluckydudeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$294.55

Value

$286.45

PnL

-$8.1

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$294.12

Value

$284.72

PnL

-$9.4

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Both legs:

Rockets$154.9553.9¢+$36.31

Jazz$139.1849.9¢-$45.71

micky456CTR

Jazz

Invested

$264.92

Value

$266.06

PnL

+$1.14

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

forecastication4

Rockets

Invested

$134.46

Value

$140.94

PnL

+$6.48

Record

32%

147-308 (455)

LightParadoxCTR

Jazz

Invested

$160.66

Value

$122.86

PnL

-$37.8

Record

36%

911-1587 (2498)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$38.19

Value

$99.57

PnL

+$61.38

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rockets

Invested

$986.83

Value

$96.14

PnL

-$6.05

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

38791873984189

Rockets

Invested

$475.84

Value

$70.88

PnL

+$26.55

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$26.14

Value

$37.03

PnL

+$10.89

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

alpheclabs2<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.48

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$2.87

Record

45%

259-311 (570)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.12

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$4.31

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$60.84

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$10.34

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.