Spread: Rockets (-13.5)

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (53%) · Jazz at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Rockets6¢Jazz94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 53%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$72.45

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 94.4¢

+37% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rockets6%

Jazz94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,722

Combined PnL+$716.98

Rockets8 traders

Total Value$229.41

Total Shares2,363

Combined PnL-$789.43

Jazz — 53%Rockets — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 77¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$285.88	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 39.4¢	$149.99	$365.23	+$215.23	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jazzavg 62.2¢	$324.65	$358.4	+$33.75	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 66.4¢	$243.06	$322.4	+$85.94	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
NA NatoAlfista	Jazzavg 51¢	$57.12	$107.41	+$50.29	41% 146-213 (359)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jazzavg 38¢	$39.75	$72.18	+$32.43	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Rocketsavg 17.9¢	$1.3K	$70.7	-$227.04	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 53.7¢	$80.04	$46.19	-$33.85	48% 465-495 (960)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 67.3¢	$84.59	$40.83	+$13.48	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 62¢	$79.36	$39.68	-$39.68	38% 17-28 (45)
RN1CTR	Rocketsavg 56.5¢	$486.1	$35.28	-$450.82	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 61¢	$43.18	$21.94	-$21.23	43% 920-1244 (2164)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Jazzavg 71¢	$15.27	$14.84	-$0.43	44% 422-532 (954)
MI micky456CTR	Rocketsavg 54.1¢	$116.75	$12.83	-$11.33	47% 489-544 (1033)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.7	+$0.4	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 4¢	$0.91	$1.47	+$0.57	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 23¢	$7.36	$1.31	-$6.05	59% 3410-2403 (5813)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$2,041.24

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$285.88

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$149.99

Value

$365.23

PnL

+$215.23

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jazz

Invested

$324.65

Value

$358.4

PnL

+$33.75

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$243.06

Value

$322.4

PnL

+$85.94

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

NatoAlfista

Jazz

Invested

$57.12

Value

$107.41

PnL

+$50.29

Record

41%

146-213 (359)

38791873984189<$100

Jazz

Invested

$39.75

Value

$72.18

PnL

+$32.43

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,269

Value

$70.7

PnL

-$227.04

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$80.04

Value

$46.19

PnL

-$33.85

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$84.59

Value

$40.83

PnL

+$13.48

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$79.36

Value

$39.68

PnL

-$39.68

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

RN1CTR

Rockets

Invested

$486.1

Value

$35.28

PnL

-$450.82

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

sentrioCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$43.18

Value

$21.94

PnL

-$21.23

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

justaluckydude<$100

Jazz

Invested

$15.27

Value

$14.84

PnL

-$0.43

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

micky456CTR

Rockets

Invested

$116.75

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$11.33

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$0.91

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.57

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$7.36

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$6.05

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.