Spread: Jazz (-2.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (36%) · Rockets at 92¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Jazz8¢Rockets92¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 36%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$209.25

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 91.8¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz8%

Rockets92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,212

Combined PnL+$212.07

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$179.84

Total Shares4,265

Combined PnL-$421.32

Rockets — 36%Jazz — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Rocketsavg 85.8¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$221.55	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Rocketsavg 91.7¢	$69.66	$69.2	-$0.46	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Jazzavg 9.6¢	$156.67	$65.19	-$91.49	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 29.8¢	$244.72	$32.84	-$211.88	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
nigiri99<$100	Rocketsavg 93.3¢	$30.79	$31.68	+$0.89	51% 499-470 (969)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Jazzavg 14.6¢	$114.93	$31.52	-$83.41	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
RN1CTR<$100	Jazzavg 7.3¢	$52.36	$28.56	-$23.8	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jazzavg 8.9¢	$103.53	$13.48	-$4.9	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 94¢	$57.32	$11.82	-$9.91	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Jazzavg 15¢	$13.5	$8.06	-$5.45	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Jazzavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.2	-$0.4	47% 489-544 (1033)

Flaznorp

Rockets

Invested

$3,553.44

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$221.55

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

ferdinand2<$100

Rockets

Invested

$69.66

Value

$69.2

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Jazz

Invested

$156.67

Value

$65.19

PnL

-$91.49

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$244.72

Value

$32.84

PnL

-$211.88

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

nigiri99<$100

Rockets

Invested

$30.79

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$0.89

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

6512395314597884CTR

Jazz

Invested

$114.93

Value

$31.52

PnL

-$83.41

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

RN1CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$52.36

Value

$28.56

PnL

-$23.8

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

38791873984189CTR

Jazz

Invested

$103.53

Value

$13.48

PnL

-$4.9

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$57.32

Value

$11.82

PnL

-$9.91

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$13.5

Value

$8.06

PnL

-$5.45

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

micky456CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.1%

91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.