Spread: Trail Blazers (-34.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (45%) · Kings at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers3¢Kings97¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 45%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$7.38

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 96.8¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers3%

Kings97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,817

Combined PnL+$19.19

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$16.98

Total Shares906

Combined PnL-$11.82

Kings — 45%Trail Blazers — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Kingsavg 96.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$10	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
FO Forecastication2	Kingsavg 96¢	$597.12	$603.34	+$6.22	45% 230-283 (513)
GA Gaditima	Kingsavg 96¢	$240	$242.5	+$2.5	48% 251-267 (518)
PU purplegatto	Kingsavg 96¢	$122.88	$124.16	+$1.28	68% 2630-1225 (3855)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kingsavg 99.3¢	$43.12	$42.31	-$0.81	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3.4¢	$13.36	$6.7	-$6.66	48% 505-558 (1063)
RN1CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3¢	$6.91	$4.49	-$2.42	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3.1¢	$2.37	$2.3	-$0.07	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
dips.CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3¢	$3.1	$1.76	-$1.34	47% 899-997 (1896)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3¢	$3	$1.7	-$1.3	59% 3430-2414 (5844)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 5.4¢	$0.06	$0.03	-$0.03	37% 872-1456 (2328)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Kings

Invested

$1,710.46

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$10

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

Forecastication2

Kings

Invested

$597.12

Value

$603.34

PnL

+$6.22

Record

45%

230-283 (513)

Gaditima

Kings

Invested

$240

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

48%

251-267 (518)

purplegatto

Kings

Invested

$122.88

Value

$124.16

PnL

+$1.28

Record

68%

2630-1225 (3855)

Pan9X<$100

Kings

Invested

$43.12

Value

$42.31

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

micky456CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$13.36

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$6.66

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

RN1CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.91

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$2.42

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

dips.CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.1

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$1.34

Record

47%

899-997 (1896)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$1.3

Record

59%

3430-2414 (5844)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.