76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 60¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 5

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$107.47

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 59.5¢

+11% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 17 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,589

Combined PnL-$69.11

Under5 traders

Total Value$466.56

Total Shares1,400

Combined PnL-$38.36

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 57.3¢	$6.0K	$5.7K	-$369.74	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.3¢	$3.5K	$4.1K	+$592.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.1¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$962.62
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 55.2¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$201.38	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$115.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.3¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$316.51
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 60.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$25.93	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.2¢	$616.76	$686.2	+$67.61
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.6¢	$376.62	$369.44	-$41.68
TA takeormake	Overavg 34.5¢	$325.67	$764.32	+$438.65	53% 4711-4219 (8930)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 35.7¢	$466.87	$431.86	-$35.02	59% 31932-22560 (54492)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 67.4¢	$793.62	$388.44	-$197.61	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 44.8¢	$214.26	$320.27	+$106.01	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
US User7429	Overavg 57.1¢	$127.26	$160.56	+$33.3	56% 8948-7153 (16101)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$190.56	$157.24	-$33.33	47% 11225-12583 (23808)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.5¢	$109.62	$81.91	-$27.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.1¢	$80.94	$75.33	-$5.61
GA Gaditima	Overavg 63¢	$296.25	$141.07	-$155.18	48% 7113-7815 (14928)
FO forecastication4	Overavg 64¢	$170.24	$79.8	-$90.44	50% 1352-1360 (2712)
RN1	Overavg 63¢	$157.5	$75	-$82.5	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 67.6¢	$74.31	$73.7	-$0.61	61% 2426-1548 (3974)
poshposh	Overavg 63¢	$133.06	$63.36	-$69.7	57% 12394-9456 (21850)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 65.5¢	$41.22	$43	+$1.78	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 65¢	$68.36	$31.57	-$36.8	47% 1182-1355 (2537)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 62.2¢	$30.95	$14.93	-$16.02	50% 25577-25281 (50858)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$23	$14	-$9	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
3C 0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$39.04	$9.8	+$6.82	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$10.32	$7.41	-$2.92	46% 1416-1675 (3091)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$1.75	$3.5	+$1.75	50% 8211-8248 (16459)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,046.49

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$369.74

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

Both legs:

Over$3,503.457.3¢+$592.88

Under$2,543.0953.1¢-$962.62

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,867.83

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$201.38

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

Both legs:

Over$1,465.2255.2¢+$115.13

Under$1,402.6252.3¢-$316.51

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,279

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$25.93

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

Both legs:

Over$616.7660.2¢+$67.61

Under$376.6233.6¢-$41.68

takeormake

Over

Invested

$325.67

Value

$764.32

PnL

+$438.65

Record

53%

4711-4219 (8930)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$466.87

Value

$431.86

PnL

-$35.02

Record

59%

31932-22560 (54492)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$793.62

Value

$388.44

PnL

-$197.61

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$214.26

Value

$320.27

PnL

+$106.01

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

User7429

Over

Invested

$127.26

Value

$160.56

PnL

+$33.3

Record

56%

8948-7153 (16101)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$190.56

Value

$157.24

PnL

-$33.33

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

Both legs:

Under$109.6251.5¢-$27.72

Over$80.9466.1¢-$5.61

Gaditima

Over

Invested

$296.25

Value

$141.07

PnL

-$155.18

Record

48%

7113-7815 (14928)

forecastication4

Over

Invested

$170.24

Value

$79.8

PnL

-$90.44

Record

50%

1352-1360 (2712)

RN1

Over

Invested

$157.5

Value

$75

PnL

-$82.5

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$74.31

Value

$73.7

PnL

-$0.61

Record

61%

2426-1548 (3974)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$133.06

Value

$63.36

PnL

-$69.7

Record

57%

12394-9456 (21850)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$41.22

Value

$43

PnL

+$1.78

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$68.36

Value

$31.57

PnL

-$36.8

Record

47%

1182-1355 (2537)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$30.95

Value

$14.93

PnL

-$16.02

Record

50%

25577-25281 (50858)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23

Value

$14

PnL

-$9

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.04

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$6.82

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.32

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$2.92

Record

46%

1416-1675 (3091)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.75

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$1.75

Record

50%

8211-8248 (16459)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 17 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.