Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 224.5

17 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 63¢ · $48K held · ended Nov 12

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.9K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 62.5¢

+28% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

17 of 24 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over17 traders

Total Value$35.1K

Total Shares62,696

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Under7 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares14,988

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 48¢	$17.7K	$19.5K	+$1.8K	51% 3730-3553 (7283)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$6.9K	$7.2K	+$340.42	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 49.6¢	$4.7K	$6.1K	+$1.4K	26% 22-64 (86)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 48.2¢	$3.3K	$3.9K	+$689.75	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$742.26	61% 36-23 (59)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 59¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$210.74	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$980.72	$856.72	-$124
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$852.77	$766.02	-$86.75
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 46.7¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	+$528.83	55% 843-701 (1544)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 26¢	$500.18	$746.7	+$246.52	46% 200-233 (433)
└ Under leg	Underavg 26¢	$260	$575	+$315
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.4¢	$240.18	$171.7	-$68.48
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$699.67	$715.26	+$15.58	52% 597-541 (1138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$360.49	$389.91	+$29.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$339.19	$325.34	-$13.84
FO forecastication4	Overavg 51¢	$506.94	$636.16	+$129.22	21% 63-235 (298)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 51.1¢	$564.9	$634.35	+$69.45	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
nigiri99	Overavg 51¢	$456.45	$572.8	+$116.35	52% 235-217 (452)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 66¢	$375.7	$301.69	-$74	53% 305-275 (580)
TA takeormake	Overavg 53¢	$194.06	$199.55	+$5.49	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
GC GC-P	Overavg 50¢	$175	$185.5	+$10.5	22% 106-387 (493)
NM NM-P	Overavg 50¢	$175	$185.5	+$10.5	59% 3484-2373 (5857)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$137.36	$182.27	+$44.91	31% 441-967 (1408)
FE ferdinand2	Overavg 48¢	$147.92	$147.49	+$26.57	49% 973-998 (1971)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 50¢	$429.19	$119.85	+$37.33	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 48.4¢	$104.01	$114.01	+$10	36% 410-719 (1129)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 55¢	$84.29	$81.22	-$3.07	44% 143-184 (327)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$60.47	$51.87	-$8.6	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 70¢	$128.92	$36	+$10.18	49% 786-829 (1615)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$19.23	$24.23	+$5	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$32.08	$20.44	+$3.35	55% 729-596 (1325)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$17,662.81

Value

$19.5K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

51%

3730-3553 (7283)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$6,900.71

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$340.42

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,698.85

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

26%

22-64 (86)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$3,260.2

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$689.75

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Zzzz87CTR

Under

Invested

$2,559.5

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$742.26

Record

61%

36-23 (59)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,833.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$210.74

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Over$980.7259¢-$124

Under$852.7754¢-$86.75

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,664.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$528.83

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$500.18

Value

$746.7

PnL

+$246.52

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Both legs:

Under$26026¢+$315

Over$240.1859.4¢-$68.48

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$699.67

Value

$715.26

PnL

+$15.58

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

Both legs:

Over$360.4949¢+$29.43

Under$339.1949¢-$13.84

forecastication4

Over

Invested

$506.94

Value

$636.16

PnL

+$129.22

Record

21%

63-235 (298)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$564.9

Value

$634.35

PnL

+$69.45

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$456.45

Value

$572.8

PnL

+$116.35

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$375.7

Value

$301.69

PnL

-$74

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$194.06

Value

$199.55

PnL

+$5.49

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$185.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

22%

106-387 (493)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$185.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

59%

3484-2373 (5857)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$137.36

Value

$182.27

PnL

+$44.91

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

ferdinand2

Over

Invested

$147.92

Value

$147.49

PnL

+$26.57

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$429.19

Value

$119.85

PnL

+$37.33

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$104.01

Value

$114.01

PnL

+$10

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$84.29

Value

$81.22

PnL

-$3.07

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$60.47

Value

$51.87

PnL

-$8.6

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$128.92

Value

$36

PnL

+$10.18

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.23

Value

$24.23

PnL

+$5

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.08

Value

$20.44

PnL

+$3.35

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

17 of 24 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.