Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (79%) · Clippers at 86¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Thunder14¢Clippers86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 79%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$293.32

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 86¢

+23% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder14%

Clippers86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers11 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares6,690

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares8,371

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Clippers — 79%Thunder — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Clippersavg 70¢	$2.4K	$3.0K	+$559.84	51% 487-460 (947)
CH ch27erCTR	Thunderavg 31.2¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	$-1.4K	28% 20-52 (72)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 72.6¢	$1.1K	$862.86	+$134.46	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
AN Anon455	Clippersavg 70¢	$700	$860	+$160	49% 374-384 (758)
65 6512395314597884	Clippersavg 71¢	$188.84	$228.76	+$39.92	50% 3702-3662 (7364)
38 38791873984189	Clippersavg 69.5¢	$154.39	$190.92	+$36.53	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 69¢	$149.04	$185.76	+$36.72	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
TO topdogbigboi	Clippersavg 68¢	$136	$172	+$36	37% 872-1456 (2328)
PA Pan9X	Clippersavg 67.8¢	$117.99	$147.46	+$29.47	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
LR lryyy<$100	Clippersavg 66¢	$58.08	$75.68	+$17.6	45% 731-911 (1642)
RN1CTR	Thunderavg 17.1¢	$267.03	$60.2	+$38.85	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
TA takeormake<$100	Clippersavg 73.2¢	$15.97	$15.12	-$0.85	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
CI cigarettes<$100	Clippersavg 64¢	$7.91	$10.63	+$2.72	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Thunderavg 26¢	$27.43	$7.42	-$7.01	48% 505-558 (1063)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Clippers

Invested

$2,449.3

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$559.84

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

ch27erCTR

Thunder

Invested

$2,500

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

28%

20-52 (72)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$1,057.76

Value

$862.86

PnL

+$134.46

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

Anon455

Clippers

Invested

$700

Value

$860

PnL

+$160

Record

49%

374-384 (758)

6512395314597884

Clippers

Invested

$188.84

Value

$228.76

PnL

+$39.92

Record

50%

3702-3662 (7364)

38791873984189

Clippers

Invested

$154.39

Value

$190.92

PnL

+$36.53

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$149.04

Value

$185.76

PnL

+$36.72

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

topdogbigboi

Clippers

Invested

$136

Value

$172

PnL

+$36

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

Pan9X

Clippers

Invested

$117.99

Value

$147.46

PnL

+$29.47

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

lryyy<$100

Clippers

Invested

$58.08

Value

$75.68

PnL

+$17.6

Record

45%

731-911 (1642)

RN1CTR

Thunder

Invested

$267.03

Value

$60.2

PnL

+$38.85

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

takeormake<$100

Clippers

Invested

$15.97

Value

$15.12

PnL

-$0.85

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

cigarettes<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.91

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$2.72

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

micky456CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$27.43

Value

$7.42

PnL

-$7.01

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.