Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (54%) · Clippers at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Thunder2¢Clippers98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$253.6

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 98.2¢

+31% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder2%

Clippers98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,851

Combined PnL+$512.8

Thunder6 traders

Total Value$330.73

Total Shares2,480

Combined PnL-$259.2

Clippers — 54%Thunder — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (13 on Thunder) disagree here.

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 71.7¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$661.67	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
RN1	Clippersavg 69.9¢	$821.29	$859.55	+$38.27	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
65 6512395314597884	Clippersavg 88.7¢	$634	$520.8	-$113.2	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Clippersavg 73.5¢	$313.61	$307.35	-$6.26	51% 493-465 (958)
38 38791873984189	Clippersavg 94¢	$261.43	$207.2	-$54.23	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Thunderavg 29.7¢	$3.4K	$168.46	-$552.55	55% 1469-1221 (2690)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 94¢	$108.57	$109.73	-$772.12
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 29.7¢	$348.59	$58.73	+$219.56
TA takeormakeCTR	Thunderavg 25.9¢	$152.49	$163.2	+$10.71	57% 3492-2606 (6098)
AN Anon455CTR	Thunderavg 32.6¢	$175.95	$151.19	-$24.76	50% 400-403 (803)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 91.9¢	$82.56	$65.22	-$12.6	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Clippersavg 73¢	$24.78	$23.92	-$0.85	37% 909-1532 (2441)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 6.6¢	$37.28	$7.43	-$13.67	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
MI micky456CTR	Thunderavg 28¢	$205.52	$7.34	-$198.18	48% 550-607 (1157)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Thunderavg 35¢	$28	$0.8	-$27.2	58% 3466-2465 (5931)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 27¢	$6.87	$0.76	-$6.11	46% 470-556 (1026)

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$2,282.46

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$661.67

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$821.29

Value

$859.55

PnL

+$38.27

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

6512395314597884

Clippers

Invested

$634

Value

$520.8

PnL

-$113.2

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Clippers

Invested

$313.61

Value

$307.35

PnL

-$6.26

Record

51%

493-465 (958)

38791873984189

Clippers

Invested

$261.43

Value

$207.2

PnL

-$54.23

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$3,361.91

Value

$168.46

PnL

-$552.55

Record

55%

1469-1221 (2690)

Both legs:

Clippers$108.5794¢-$772.12

Thunder$348.5929.7¢+$219.56

takeormakeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$152.49

Value

$163.2

PnL

+$10.71

Record

57%

3492-2606 (6098)

Anon455CTR

Thunder

Invested

$175.95

Value

$151.19

PnL

-$24.76

Record

50%

400-403 (803)

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$82.56

Value

$65.22

PnL

-$12.6

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

topdogbigboi<$100

Clippers

Invested

$24.78

Value

$23.92

PnL

-$0.85

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$37.28

Value

$7.43

PnL

-$13.67

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

micky456CTR

Thunder

Invested

$205.52

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$198.18

Record

48%

550-607 (1157)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$28

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$27.2

Record

58%

3466-2465 (5931)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$6.87

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$6.11

Record

46%

470-556 (1026)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (13 on Thunder) disagree here.

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.