Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (71%) · Clippers at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 9

Pelicans2¢Clippers98¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 71%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 98.5¢

+70% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans2%

Clippers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers10 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares16,453

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Pelicans4 traders

Total Value$105.86

Total Shares1,288

Combined PnL-$240.44

Clippers — 71%Pelicans — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Clippersavg 52¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$156.59	48% 521-567 (1088)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 71.9¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$263.77	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 76.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$138.04	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
AN Anon455	Clippersavg 59.2¢	$561.61	$934.15	+$372.55	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
RN1	Clippersavg 68¢	$564.96	$818.54	+$253.57	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Clippersavg 49.6¢	$177.07	$349.68	+$172.61	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
drainedandpoor	Clippersavg 53.9¢	$156.78	$155.67	-$1.11	48% 691-741 (1432)
TM TMingchanCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 47¢	$75.2	$74.4	-$0.8	57% 30-23 (53)
TA takeormake<$100	Clippersavg 91.1¢	$58.28	$62.75	+$4.47	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 72.5¢	$42.57	$57.85	+$15.28	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Pelicansavg 23.6¢	$261.35	$22.16	-$239.19	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 48.2¢	$7.24	$6.98	-$0.26	50% 8704-8819 (17523)
LI LightParadox<$100	Clippersavg 44.2¢	$2.21	$4.9	+$2.69	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 50.2¢	$2.51	$2.33	-$0.19	49% 2223-2352 (4575)

Multicoloured-Serf

Clippers

Invested

$5,430.03

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$156.59

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$1,707.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$263.77

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$1,322.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$138.04

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Anon455

Clippers

Invested

$561.61

Value

$934.15

PnL

+$372.55

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$564.96

Value

$818.54

PnL

+$253.57

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Clippers

Invested

$177.07

Value

$349.68

PnL

+$172.61

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

drainedandpoor

Clippers

Invested

$156.78

Value

$155.67

PnL

-$1.11

Record

48%

691-741 (1432)

TMingchanCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$75.2

Value

$74.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

57%

30-23 (53)

takeormake<$100

Clippers

Invested

$58.28

Value

$62.75

PnL

+$4.47

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$42.57

Value

$57.85

PnL

+$15.28

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

6512395314597884CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$261.35

Value

$22.16

PnL

-$239.19

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$7.24

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

8704-8819 (17523)

LightParadox<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.21

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$2.69

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

LimousinCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.19

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.