Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Lakers (68%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lakers (-4.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (71%) · Suns at 32¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Lakers68¢Suns32¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$22.43

Smart Money Entry

42.3¢ → 32¢

-24% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers68%

Suns32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,381

Combined PnL+$28.23

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$555

Total Shares863

Combined PnL-$5.8

Suns — 71%Lakers — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLakers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Sunsavg 33.8¢	$710.15	$676.51	-$33.64	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 33.8¢	$439.43	$422.52	-$16.91
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 71.9¢	$270.72	$253.99	-$16.73
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sunsavg 54¢	$598.7	$604.24	+$5.54	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
KA Kaczka	Lakersavg 67.3¢	$495	$488.84	-$6.16	12% 29-216 (245)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Lakersavg 44¢	$320.06	$328.24	+$8.18	43% 577-770 (1347)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 44¢	$219.99	$229.99	+$10
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 55¢	$100.07	$98.25	-$1.82
NM NM-PARB<$100	Lakersavg 44¢	$241.14	$243.93	+$2.8	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 44¢	$128.09	$129.55	+$1.46
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 54.8¢	$113.04	$114.38	+$1.34
AN Anon455CTR	Sunsavg 29.6¢	$179.2	$202.52	+$23.32	49% 497-511 (1008)
MI micky456ARB<$100	Sunsavg 34¢	$113.3	$91.83	-$1.67	48% 652-715 (1367)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 34¢	$52.7	$51.93	-$1.37
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 67¢	$40.2	$39.9	-$0.3
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sunsavg 33¢	$50.49	$51.26	+$0.77	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Sunsavg 34¢	$38.56	$40.82	+$2.27	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Sunsavg 34¢	$42.16	$40.3	-$1.86	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Lakersavg 44.3¢	$36.75	$37.31	+$0.56	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 38.9¢	$56.34	$36.07	-$3.05	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Sunsavg 33¢	$33	$33.5	+$0.5	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Lakersavg 67¢	$26.8	$26.6	-$0.2	66% 793-417 (1210)
dips.CTR<$100	Sunsavg 34¢	$21.08	$20.15	-$0.93	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Sunsavg 31¢	$18.63	$20.15	+$1.52	56% 4194-3285 (7479)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Sunsavg 53¢	$8.36	$8.52	+$0.16	48% 722-769 (1491)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lakersavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.25	+$0	43% 875-1153 (2028)

RN1ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$710.15

Value

$676.51

PnL

-$33.64

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Suns$439.4333.8¢-$16.91

Lakers$270.7271.9¢-$16.73

HomeRunHazardCTR

Suns

Invested

$598.7

Value

$604.24

PnL

+$5.54

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

Kaczka

Lakers

Invested

$495

Value

$488.84

PnL

-$6.16

Record

12%

29-216 (245)

GC-PARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$320.06

Value

$328.24

PnL

+$8.18

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

Both legs:

Invested

$241.14

Value

$243.93

PnL

+$2.8

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

Both legs:

Lakers$128.0944¢+$1.46

Suns$113.0454.8¢+$1.34

Anon455CTR

Suns

Invested

$179.2

Value

$202.52

PnL

+$23.32

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

micky456ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$113.3

Value

$91.83

PnL

-$1.67

Record

48%

652-715 (1367)

Both legs:

Suns$52.734¢-$1.37

Lakers$40.267¢-$0.3

38791873984189CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$50.49

Value

$51.26

PnL

+$0.77

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$38.56

Value

$40.82

PnL

+$2.27

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$42.16

Value

$40.3

PnL

-$1.86

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

SnakeBall<$100

Lakers

Invested

$36.75

Value

$37.31

PnL

+$0.56

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$56.34

Value

$36.07

PnL

-$3.05

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$33

Value

$33.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

suitcase6628<$100

Lakers

Invested

$26.8

Value

$26.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

66%

793-417 (1210)

dips.CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$21.08

Value

$20.15

PnL

-$0.93

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$18.63

Value

$20.15

PnL

+$1.52

Record

56%

4194-3285 (7479)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$8.36

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

722-769 (1491)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLakers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.