Spread: Lakers (-28.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (44%) · Suns at 85¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Lakers15¢Suns85¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$186.21

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 85.3¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers15%

Suns85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,349

Combined PnL-$263.78

Lakers5 traders

Total Value$138.66

Total Shares1,085

Combined PnL+$77.57

Suns — 44%Lakers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSuns 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 96¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$244.86	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Sunsavg 93.7¢	$283.01	$549.76	+$266.75	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 4¢	$107.36	$389.48	+$282.12
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 93.7¢	$175.65	$160.28	-$15.37
NO NotJump	Sunsavg 50¢	$525	$525	-$0	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
FE ferdinand2	Sunsavg 96¢	$293.43	$261.37	-$32.06	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 89¢	$164.65	$177.78	+$13.13	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Lakersavg 4.1¢	$19.66	$70.32	+$50.66	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lakersavg 4.1¢	$9.27	$33	+$23.73	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Lakersavg 6.3¢	$9.45	$22.5	+$13.05	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
RN1CTR<$100	Lakersavg 11¢	$20.35	$7.22	-$13.13	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Lakersavg 6.3¢	$2.36	$5.62	+$3.26	48% 654-715 (1369)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$2,239.81

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$244.86

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$283.01

Value

$549.76

PnL

+$266.75

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Both legs:

Lakers$107.364¢+$282.12

Suns$175.6593.7¢-$15.37

NotJump

Suns

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

ferdinand2

Suns

Invested

$293.43

Value

$261.37

PnL

-$32.06

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$164.65

Value

$177.78

PnL

+$13.13

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$19.66

Value

$70.32

PnL

+$50.66

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$9.27

Value

$33

PnL

+$23.73

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$9.45

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$13.05

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

RN1CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$20.35

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$13.13

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

micky456CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.36

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$3.26

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSuns 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.9%

85.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.