Spread: Lakers (-20.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (33%) · Lakers at 57¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 15

Lakers57¢Suns43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.3K

Combined PnL

$154.36

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers57%

Suns43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares34,068

Combined PnL+$426.05

Suns8 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares33,605

Combined PnL-$271.69

Lakers — 33%Suns — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP VPenguin	Lakersavg 58¢	$18.4K	$18.5K	+$158.32	36% 19-34 (53)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sunsavg 42¢	$13.2K	$13.0K	-$156.57	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
FL Flaznorp	Lakersavg 45.7¢	$946.56	$1.2K	+$243.4	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
AN Anon455CTR	Sunsavg 74¢	$963.33	$844.23	-$119.09	50% 563-572 (1135)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Lakersavg 50¢	$525	$530.25	+$5.25	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50¢	$262.5	$341.25	+$78.75
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50¢	$262.5	$189	-$73.5
RN1ARB<$100	Sunsavg 44¢	$217.2	$339.38	+$122.18	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 25.9¢	$103.73	$228.57	+$124.84
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 44¢	$113.47	$110.81	-$2.66
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 58.7¢	$318.21	$247.49	-$28.96	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 58.7¢	$174.85	$174.33	-$1.01
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 57.4¢	$101.11	$73.16	-$27.95
65 6512395314597884CTR	Sunsavg 42.3¢	$250.38	$245.52	-$4.86	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lakersavg 65.6¢	$584.62	$194.97	+$25.61	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Sunsavg 41¢	$50.01	$51.84	+$1.83	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Sunsavg 42¢	$50.4	$51	+$0.6	66% 803-421 (1224)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Sunsavg 25¢	$25	$42.5	+$17.5	48% 654-715 (1369)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 39.7¢	$30.19	$19	-$11.19	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Lakersavg 63.4¢	$16.65	$15.36	-$1.29	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 27¢	$5.2	$5.3	+$0.1	57% 3727-2840 (6567)

VPenguin

Lakers

Invested

$18,365.68

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$158.32

Record

36%

19-34 (53)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Suns

Invested

$13,151.86

Value

$13.0K

PnL

-$156.57

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

Flaznorp

Lakers

Invested

$946.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$243.4

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Anon455CTR

Suns

Invested

$963.33

Value

$844.23

PnL

-$119.09

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

NotJumpARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$525

Value

$530.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Suns$262.550¢+$78.75

Lakers$262.550¢-$73.5

RN1ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$217.2

Value

$339.38

PnL

+$122.18

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Lakers$103.7325.9¢+$124.84

Suns$113.4744¢-$2.66

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$318.21

Value

$247.49

PnL

-$28.96

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Lakers$174.8558.7¢-$1.01

Suns$101.1157.4¢-$27.95

6512395314597884CTR

Suns

Invested

$250.38

Value

$245.52

PnL

-$4.86

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lakers

Invested

$584.62

Value

$194.97

PnL

+$25.61

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$50.01

Value

$51.84

PnL

+$1.83

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$50.4

Value

$51

PnL

+$0.6

Record

66%

803-421 (1224)

micky456CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$25

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$30.19

Value

$19

PnL

-$11.19

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

ferdinand2<$100

Lakers

Invested

$16.65

Value

$15.36

PnL

-$1.29

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.