Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$65.51

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 50.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,955

Combined PnL+$52.38

Over7 traders

Total Value$826.28

Total Shares1,626

Combined PnL+$13.13

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$33.69	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$70.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.3¢	$1.0K	$985.1	-$37.19
nigiri99	Underavg 48.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$46.14	43% 28-37 (65)
73 739633786CTR	Overavg 49¢	$371	$374.79	+$3.79	0% 0-75 (75)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$360.5	$350	-$10.5	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$182	$169.75	-$12.25
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$294.36	$286.86	-$7.5	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$159.68	$161.25	+$1.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$134.68	$125.62	-$9.07
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 53¢	$265	$272.5	+$7.5	69% 29-13 (42)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 48¢	$115.2	$116.4	+$1.2	52% 242-224 (466)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 43¢	$105.72	$109.57	+$6.02	49% 60-63 (123)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48	$48.5	+$0.5	54% 233-201 (434)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Underavg 48¢	$21.14	$21.36	+$0.22	0% 0-42 (42)
TX txwd9991CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$11.73	$11.85	+$0.12	0% 0-47 (47)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$1.33	$1.34	+$0.01	3% 4-156 (160)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$0.9	$0.91	+$0.01	—

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,191.85

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$33.69

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Under$1,120.5647.5¢+$70.88

Over$1,021.0151.3¢-$37.19

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,302.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$46.14

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

739633786CTR

Over

Invested

$371

Value

$374.79

PnL

+$3.79

Record

0-75 (75)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$360.5

Value

$350

PnL

-$10.5

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Invested

$294.36

Value

$286.86

PnL

-$7.5

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Under$159.6851¢+$1.57

Over$134.6852¢-$9.07

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$265

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$115.2

Value

$116.4

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$105.72

Value

$109.57

PnL

+$6.02

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Under

Invested

$21.14

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$0.22

Record

0-42 (42)

txwd9991CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.73

Value

$11.85

PnL

+$0.12

Record

0-47 (47)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.01

Record

4-156 (160)

auros2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.